The New Millennium Falcon
By Jon Lopuch
Associate Editor
July 7, 2007
The Falcons running attack has been fertile ground for fantasy owners in recent years. However, most of that damage has been done by Warrick Dunn and Michael Vick and an offensive line that employed a zone-blocking scheme. Each of these ingredients of success are scheduled to change, though, as Dunn advances in age and new head coach Bobby Petrino looks to employ a more traditional blocking system with his beefed up offensive line. The biggest beneficiary of all this may be second-year back Jerious Norwood, who emerged from virtual anonymity as a third-round pick to become one of the more exciting rookie runners on the NFL landscape. Now as a sophomore, he has a chance to emerge as a featured back and continue the tradition of productive rushers in Hotlanta.
The Stat: Norwood ran for over 100 yards twice last season despite never receiving more than 13 carries in any game.
Fantasy Outlook: The first step Norwood must take to become a reliable fantasy option is usurping Dunn as the team's primary runner, and despite the fact Warrick has run for over 1,000 yards in three straight season, that change just might be in the cards. First off, Dunn's yards-per-carry average in 2006 was a meager 4.0, his lowest average since he arrived in Georgia five years ago. He managed only three 100-yard performances and none of them occurred after Week 6. This illustrates another problem of Dunn's, which is his nasty habit of wearing down in the second half of the season. Last year was another example of this, as Warrick averaged 3.4 yards per carry, had just one run longer than 20 yards, and scored once during the final eight games.
Dunn isn't going to just step aside and let Jerious take his job, so Norwood will have to prove in training camp he is the man for the Atlanta plan. Luckily for those backing Norwood in this two-horse race, he displayed as a rookie the potential to flourish as a featured runner. He averaged 6.4 yards per carry and broke off several impressive runs, including touchdowns from 78 and 69 yards. Jerious also proved he could the handle any workload the coaching staff threw at him, as he averaged over six yards per carry in two of the three games he received at least 10 carries. So that even with an increased workload this season, Norwood should remain the more explosive and dynamic of the two runners.
Yet perhaps the biggest change to the running game won't involve either of the two backs. The Falcons are scratching the zone-blocking attack that has brought Dunn so much success and implementing a more power-based philosophy that calls for bigger blockers instead of the nimble linemen Atlanta had been employing in recent years. Warrick was perfect fit for the former system, but it appears to be Norwood and his additional size is better designed for what the club is doing this year. And while Jerious doesn't have Dunn's resume of success, he also doesn't have all the mileage on his tires and trip to the surgeon's table. Based on what he did as a rookie and how well he fits a power running game, Norwood is the smart money bet to end up with the starting gig this season. And because he will end up above Dunn on the team's depth chart, make sure he resides above him in your rankings, as well.