2007 Fantasy Quarterbacks : Ranking Analysis
ELITE
Tom Brady New England Patriots
In the prime of his career and arguably one of the top
quarterbacks to ever play the position, Tom Brady won 3
Superbowls with little talent at the WR position. Brady led
all QBs in 2005 with 4110 passing yards...only to fall off in
2006 due to a below average and decimated receiving corps.
Fast forward to 2007 and the Pats have landed Randy Moss and
Dante' Stallworth - giving Tom Brady his best ever group of
receivers. Brady has always been an extremely consistent
passer who won games with his on-field sense and pin-point
accuracy. And this off-season's supporting cast moves (on
both sides of the ball) for an already contending team will
boost Brady fantasy owners and the New England Patriots to
the Superbowl.
2006 Stats TDs 24 Passing yards 3533
Peyton Manning Indianapolis Colts
"Mr. Consistency" dominated all fantasy quarterbacks in 2006.
The Superbowl MVP threw a TD in every game he played last
season and scored 7 more TDs than the next best QB. Even
in losses (the Colts lost their last 4 regular season games),
Manning remained productive. Manning makes few mistakes and
will continue stellar performances in 2007 with virtually an
entire returning offense. Peyton will again throw over 30
TDs and 4000+ yards with another 100+ passer rating this year
for the Colts and his fantasy owners. But despite Manning's
consistent top-notch past performances and his signed jersey
in my office, it's difficult to put him ahead of Brady this
season with the incredible WR talent bestowed upon the Pats.
2006 Stats TDs 35 Passing yards 4397
Carson Palmer Cincinnati Bengals
After breaking out in 2005, Palmer was ready to capitalize
upon his performances for 2006...despite a season ending knee
injury in a losing playoff effort. Palmer proved 2006 was a
new year and adjusted nicely to his new surgically-repaired
knee. As the season progressed, Palmer grooved the ball into
the hands of Chad Johnson and T.J. Houshmandzadeh with
accuracy to finish with 28 total TDs on the season (2nd only
to Manning). But Palmer was not enough to carry the Bengals
from the dredges of the Cincinnati police blotter in 2006.
Off-field team antics directly affected the locker room and
contributed to Cincy losses in 7 of their last 12 games (not
helping Palmer nor his fantasy stats). Bottom line: Palmer
overcame an extensive off-season rehabilitation and still
finished 3rd among fantasy QBs last year. This year should
fare even better for CP provided that head coach Marvin Lewis
learned his lesson and distances the criminal element from
the team.
2006 Stats TDs 28 Passing yards 4036
Drew Brees New Orleans Saints
Other than hard-core Purdue fans, very few expected Drew
Brees to take a sub-500 (and Katrina distraught) New Orleans
team and make them a contender...and give New Orleans a much
needed football spirit like they have never seen. The always
accurate Brees has an uncanny ability to read defenses and
lead offenses. And similar to Brady...DB has been able to
perform without stellar wide receivers. Cool Brees finished
2nd among fantasy quarterbacks in 2006 and led all in total
passing yardage (actually would have done much more had the
Saints not wrapped up the division with 3 regular season
games remaining prior to the NFL playoffs). Look for Brees
to build upon his comfort in New Orleans and build upon his
QB stats for fantasy owners.
2006 Stats TDs 26 Passing yards 4424
BIG GUNS
Marc Bulger St. Louis Rams
All Bulger does is throw for yardage and TDs with few
interceptions. 2006 was no different as he threw for 4300+
yards and 24 TDs with only 8 INTs. This season will be
another consistently productive season for Bulger with the
same familiar Scott Linehan coached offense. Torry Holt
remains ageless and Steven Jackson has become and absolute
stud...both of which will perpetuate Bulger's numbers and
comfort fantasy owners who land Bulger in their draft.
2006 Stats TDs 24 Passing yards 4301
Donovan McNabb Philadelphia Eagles
Virtually nobody knows what to do with Donovan McNabb in
their fantasy draft this summer. McNabb started out 2006 on
fire with 2600+ yds and 20 total TDs prior to being injured
in game 10 (on a pace for well over 4000 yds and 30+ TDs).
Complicating matters for fantasy owners are the fact that
McNabb was also injured in 2005 (played only 9 games) and he
turns 31 this summer...and...he lost WR Dante' Stallworth to
New England. Owners should understand that McNabb will put
up some nice stats again in 2007...and be mindful that the
risks associated with DM may be enough for conservative
owners to pass on McNabb unless they can add a solid backup
QB to their roster.
2006 Stats TDs 20 Passing yards 2647
Jon Kitna Detroit Lions
Jon Kitna and the Lions won just 3 games in 2006, but Kitna
surprisingly threw for over 4200 yards and totaled 23 TDs to
finish 6th in fantasy QB totals last season. And Kitna was
consistent...in fact, JK failed to score in just 3 games.
Kitna's downside is the tendency to throw more than his share
of INTs (22 last season), but interceptions should only be an
issue for those leagues counting negative stats. Jon Kitna
has one of the best wide receivers in the NFL (Roy Williams)
and Detroit clearly landed the top athlete taken in this
year's NFL draft (WR Calvin Johnson). With a stable of top
WRs and offensive coordinator Mike Martz at the helm, don't
be surprised if Kitna starts strong and stays near the top of
the fantasy QB fantasy pile with his weapons and the
offensive scheme in Detroit.
2006 Stats TDs 23 Passing yards 4208
Philip Rivers San Diego Chargers
Philip Rivers came into his own last season, but it was
mostly because Drew Brees left the team...well, that and also
because the Charger offense continues with super-STUD
LaDainian Tomlinson as its starting running back to serve as
a "decoy" to Rivers. Regardless...Rivers is a young talented
QB with an incredibly strong supporting cast on both sides of
the ball. Sure...LT may continue to "take away" TDs from
Rivers, but San Diego will have a plethora of opportunities
for Philip Rivers to throw for TDs in 2007 (especially with
the additional focus on Tomlinson). Don't be surprised if PR
tosses for 4000 yds and approaches 30 TDs this season.
2006 Stats TDs 22 Passing yards 3388
Matt Hasselbeck Seattle Seahawks
The defending NFC champion quarterback in 2005 had a tougher
year in 2006. Matt Hasselbeck may have benefitted from a
soft schedule, but injuries to Shaun Alexander (and himself)
were a dagger to fantasy owners who believed H-beck was their
QB. And to complicate matters this year, Hasselbeck returns
to 2007 without his go-to guy at WR (Darrell Jackson) after
an off-season move out of Seattle. On the positive side,
Hasselbeck and Alexander appear to have recovered and WR
Deion Branch signed a lucrative contract in Seattle (from New
England) to replace Jackson. Matt Hasselbeck is a very
accurate quarterback with a strong arm. Expect Seattles QB
to once again open up a pass friendly offense on a solid
team, but Hasselbeck may no longer be thought of as a "sure
thing" at the fantasy QB position if the Seahawk offense
can't get their running game going.
2006 Stats TDs 18 Passing yards 2442
SOLID
Matt Leinart Arizona Cardinals
I really like Leinart this season and wanted to rank him much
higher, but there are still questions with the inexperience
of the young quarterback behind a relatively weak offensive
line. Leinart comes equipped with strong skills, but will
continue to adjust to the speed of the NFL in his sophomore
season. The Cardinals have one of the best core of WRs in
the NFL with Anquan Boldin / Larry Fitzgerald / TE
Leonard Pope (who will see more action this season) and a versatile
pass-catching RB (Edgerrin James). If the offensive line can
somehow get it together in 2007 (the acquisition of RT
Levi Brown should help), Matt Leinart could be a steal in this
year's draft.
2006 Stats TDs - 13 Passing yards 2542
Eli Manning New York Giants
The #1 draft choice in 2004 hasn't exactly set the Giants on
fire...despite demonstrating a phenominal ability. But to
his defense, Eli hasn't really had much help from his o-line
or Giant coaching. To complicate the situation, Eli' poor
decisions seemed to compound and often led to interceptions -
and turned a NY fanbase against him at times. Tiki Barber
leaves the team and will force Eli to throw more, but I don't
see that hurting his numbers. Last year's 24 TDs with 3244
yards were okay...but nothing more. Expect much of the same
(maybe just a slight improvement) in 2007.
2006 Stats TDs 24 Passing yards 3244
Vince Young Tennessee Titans
Young busted into the NFL running. His 553 rushing yards and
an 8-5 record were enough for Young to be named the NFL's
offensive rookie of the year. He finished last season ranked
11th of all fantasy QBs in just his rookie season, but a
passer rating of 66.9 and 13 INTs (with only 12 passing TDs)
don't excite too many fantasy owners. Still, some owners are
buying the hype this year and have their eyes focused heavily
on Young. My advice is to pass on Young, unless in a strong
keeper league. Young will continue to roll on the highlight
reels, but the Titan team is not yet strong enough to support
the young QB. Broken plays and inconsistency on offense may
open up running room at times for Young, but defenses will
start to contain and force the rest of the Titan team to step up
beyond their ability.
2006 Stats TDs 19 Passing yards - 2199
Michael Vick - Atlanta Falcons
Vick is the most athletic QB on the board and is an absolute
human highlight reel. In 2006, Vick began to learn how to
harness his talent. While throwing for 20 TDs and a 75.7
passer rating, Vick managed to rush for 1039 (ONE THOUSAND
THIRTY NINE) yards...which was more than most fantasy running
backs. So why isn't Vick ranked higher for 2007? Vick's
lack of discipline off the field has somewhat jeopardized his
career. Dog fighting and other accusations could be the tip
of the iceberg for Vick. Advice for fantasy owners as of
this writing is to check Vick's status closer to your fantasy
draft. Mike Vick is a risk - but if he plays, his explosive
potential will reward owners brave enough to draft him...esp.
in leagues which heavily reward rushing yardage.
2006 Stats TDs 22 Passing yards 2474
Tony Romo Dallas Cowboys
Romo and Dallas fans would like to forget the playoff
experience in Seattle. The positive side, however, is that
the 27 year old Tony Romo was able to step in and start the
final 10 games after veteran Drew Bledsoe struggled. Romo
was an instant hit with Dallas fans and put up strong numbers
to earn him a Pro Bowl berth in his first season at the helm.
Romo has quality receivers (esp. Terrell Owens) and could be
a huge sleeper pick if he is able to capitalize upon last
season's successes. The only thing keeping Romo from a top
10 preseason fantasy quarterback ranking is a lack of
experience and a new head coach. Romo proved he is a very
capable quarterback...he just needs to finish where he left
off last season.
2006 Stats TDs 19 Passing yards - 2903
Jay Cutler Denver Broncos
Like Romo, Jay Cutler came in and delivered in place of a
struggling veteran. But in this case, Cuter was a fresh-
out-of-college rookie. In just five games last season, Cutler
put up 9 TDs and a 88.5 passer rating. Cutler is far from a
top 5 fantasy prediction for 2007, but he is a definite
sleeper candidate with potential to put up strong numbers.
Talented WRs Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Brandon Stokley
combined with a Mike Shanahan offense will help off-set
Cutler's inexperience.
2006 Stats TDs 9 Passing yards 1001
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