Posted on 2/26/2008 3:24:40 PM
Arena Football Betting Preview - Eastern Division - American Conference
By Mike Rose
Dallas Desperados (15-1 in 2007, lost in 2nd round to Columbus)
Odds to win ArenaBowl XXII: +400
For the second straight season, the Dallas Desperados were the best team in the AFL in the regular season. For the second straight season, they were double-digit favorites in their final playoff game. For the second straight season, they failed to advance to the ArenaBowl. Perhaps the third time’s a charm for Dallas, who returns in 2008 with an incredibly stacked lineup with hopes of making a run at ArenaBowl XXII.
2007 Highlight: The 2007 campaign began with the Desperados trampling the New York Dragons 60-7, proving to the rest of the league that they were back in full force. New York didn’t score until 11:38 left in the game, the closest a team has come to a shutout in the AFL in over a decade. QB Clint Dolezel tossed seven TDs, which began a season for him where he threw a career high 107 scores.
2007 Lowlight: It was simply called “Boing! Boing! Choke!” by the Dallas fans in attendance. With the Desperados leading their 2nd round playoff contest with the 6th seeded Columbus Destroyers 38-24 at halftime, the route appeared to be on. Peter Martinez second half kick-off was recovered by the Destroyers for a net recovery TD. The ensuing kickoff was also recovered by Columbus, which they promptly scored on to tie the game. Dallas never recovered mentally from the two bad bounces, and shockingly crashed out of the playoffs 66-59.
Key acquisition: K Remy Hamilton (16/30 FGs, 101/114 PAT’s in 2007 with Los Angeles). I guess when you’re the best team in the AFL, you may as well have one of the best kickers in AFL history on your team. Hamilton should resolve the revolving door of kickers the Desperados have had over the past few seasons.
Key loss: OL Devin Wyman (1 TD catch in 2007). Stats are hard to come by for offensive linemen, but Wyman’s effect on Dallas is huge. He was a first team All-Arena offensive lineman, and was the best protector Dolezel had last year. The line has been suspect in preseason scrimmages, and may be the biggest problem facing the Desperados.
2008 Preview: The mass majority of the best offense in AFL history is back for another attempt at glory. Dallas posted an obscene 63.5 PPG last season to go with the 2nd best defense in the conference (50.4 PPG allowed). Similar numbers should be expected from this bunch if everyone stays healthy.
2008 will be a success if… Dallas loosens up the chokehold come playoff time. We know that this team is going to be in the post-season barring a collapse of catastrophic proportions, but it’s time for Dolezel to lift his team to the ArenaBowl.
Dallas was unlucky against Columbus, but the best teams find ways to persevere in tough times. The game was still a tied with Columbus after disaster struck last year, but they simply lost their cool and suffered one of the biggest upsets in AFL history because of it. Last year Dolezel said that his team could go 16-0, and I think he might have been a year off with that prediction
Prediction: 16-0 1st place Eastern Division
Philadelphia Soul (8-8 in 2007, lost in 2nd round to Georgia)
Odds to win ArenaBowl XXII: +1000
A team full of hype last season, the Philadelphia Soul failed to live up to expectations in the regular season despite starting 4-0. However, QB Tony Graziani did lead the Soul the deepest into the playoffs they have ever been, where they ran into the buzz saw otherwise known as the (14-2) Georgia Force.
2007 Highlight: With a home playoff game on the line, Philly’s Week 17 showdown with the Orlando Predators saw a team record 17,643 cheer them on in the Wachovia Center. The hometown faithful were disappointed to see the Soul fall behind 35-21 late in the 2nd quarter, but a 34-7 scoring run put the Soul ahead for good. The next week, the Soul met the Preds again, where they advanced into the 2nd round of the playoffs for the 2nd time in team history.
2007 Lowlight: The 4-1 Soul took on the 6-0 Dallas Desperados in an Eastern Division showdown in Week 7. Dallas QB Clint Dolezel became the first person to throw for 800 touchdowns in AFL history that night, but the more disturbing news was that Tony Graziani suffered a shoulder injury that caused him to miss the next four games. Philly lost that night 51-41, and proceeded to lose the next four games without “Graz” under center.
Key acquisition: WR Chris Jackson (145 receptions, 1915 yards, 47 TDs in 2007 for Georgia). For a team that has never truly had a force as a receiver, Chris Jackson should immediately become a fan-favorite in Philadelphia. While playing with Graziani in Los Angeles in 2003 and 2004, Jackson registered 90 TDs and over 3500 total yards.
Key loss: FB/LB Idris Price (8 rushing TDs, 41.5 tackles, and 2 sacks in 2007). Price was a prize free agent signing from Orlando in 2007, and immediately made a huge impact on both sides of the ball for the Soul. Replacing the 4th leading tackler and 3rd leading rusher on the team should prove to be a difficult task for Philly.
2008 Preview: Adding Jackson and having a healthy Graziani should make the Soul a dangerous team in 2008.If Graziani can’t avoid the injury bug, the team signed a great insurance policy in former Chicago QB Matt D’Orazio. DS Eddie Moten returns to captain the secondary, which should once again be a strength of the Soul.
2008 will be a success if… Jackson puts up a monstrous season. Suddenly an offense that was very good with Graziani under center (64.1 PPG in games he started) becomes outrageous by adding Jackson. If those two return to the form of four years ago, the Soul could put up numbers that have never been seen before in league history.
Once again, the Soul are a team full of hype and on a mission that must end in a championship. Head Coach Brett Munsey has to be considered on the hot seat if this isn’t the year the Soul make a deep run into the playoffs.
Prediction: 12-4, 2nd place Eastern Division
Cleveland Gladiators (2-14 as the Las Vegas Gladiators in 2007, missed playoffs)
Odds to win ArenaBowl XXII: +5000
Bernie Kosar has salvaged a team from Las Vegas that was without a doubt the biggest joke of a franchise the league had to offer last season. His first step with his new toy was to totally gut the team and basically start over fresh as if they were an expansion club. Though the Glad’s may struggle at times this year, there’s no way that new Head Coach Mike Wilpolt will allow a repeat of 2007 to happen again.
2007 Highlight: In easily the best game the Gladiators played in 2007, Shaun King threw an AFL record 10 TD passes to help Las Vegas pick up their 1st of 2 wins of the season over the Grand Rapids Rampage 79-69. OS Kevin Prentiss scored a league record 9 TDs. The 79 points scored was the most in team history.
2007 Lowlight: Just picking out one lowlight is difficult from a 2-14 season, but the last game in Las Vegas Gladiators history was perhaps its biggest joke. The circus was in town that weekend, and there were traces of the circus left all over the arena. Send in the clowns. For what it’s worth, Las Vegas was pummeled by the eventual champions 73-46 in front of just 5,027 fans.
Key acquisition: QB Raymond Philyaw (69.0% completions, 4375 yards, 85/11 TD/INT ratio in 2007 with Kansas City). Though he’s injury prone, Philyaw is a proven winner, and is historically one of the most efficient QBs in AFL history, with only a 1.66% INT to attempt ratio. For a team hasn’t had a stable field general since Clint Dolezel left town in 2005, Philyaw is more than a welcome addition.
Key loss: WR Thabiti Davis (123 receptions, 1278 yards, 18 TDs in 2007). Though basically the entire roster has been imploded, Davis was a highlight in an otherwise dismal year. The 6’3” Davis constantly put up solid numbers week in and week out, and would have been a
nice target for Philyaw had they kept him this season.
2008 Preview: The Gladiators added a whole bunch of veteran free agents to try to build a winner. The defense has some potential, while perhaps the biggest offensive weapon will be FB Marlion Jackson, who is basically the only holdover from the team in Las Vegas.
2008 will be a success if… Cleveland shows signs of life. For a franchise that has won just seven games in the past two seasons and has only played in one playoff game since 2003, just making the playoffs would be a triumph.
Competing with Philadelphia and Dallas will prove to be impossible for this club, but with a proven winner under center and a weak bottom of the conference, seeing this team do just enough to get into the playoffs wouldn’t be overly surprising.
Prediction: 6-10, 3rd place Eastern Division
Columbus Destroyers (7-9 in 2007, lost in ArenaBowl XXI to San Jose)
Odds to win ArenaBowl XXII: +2000
The Columbus Destroyers came one step short of completing the most unlikely run to a championship in the history of the AFL in 2007. The Destroyers were the last team to qualify for the postseason, and disposed of the 1, 2, and 3 seeds in the National Conference before falling victim to San Jose in the ArenaBowl. QB Matt Nagy is back for his 2nd season with the Destroyers, who hope that this season can be the year they complete their championship dreams.
2007 Highlight: Though beating Dallas the week before was a complete shock, the most important game of the season for the Destroyers was Nagy’s vindication, preventing the Georgia Force, a team that unceremoniously dumped him the year before, from reaching their 2nd ArenaBowl in three years. Chris Jackson’s final game as a member of the Force was memorable, recording 6 TDs and 174 yards. However, the man who spent most of the day chasing him, Jerald Brown, got the last laugh, as he recorded two interceptions, one which was returned for a TD in the Destroyers conference-clinching 66-56 win in Georgia.
2007 Lowlight: A game at the 1-6 Tampa Bay Storm seemed to be an easy task for a hopeful playoff team like Columbus. When Storm QB John Kaleo was knocked out of the game in the 2nd quarter, unknown Brett Dietz had to step into his first AFL game. Despite holding the Storm to 34 points, the Destroyers came up a 2-pt conversion short of tying the game with 0:27 left, giving the Storm a 34-32 victory.
Key acquisition: WR Derek Lee (83 receptions, 886 yards, and 20 TDs with Georgia in 2007). Though the Destroyers added Lee in the off-season, he needs to replace the leading nine receivers, all of which have moved on via free agency. Lee was one of Nagy’s favorite targets with the Force in 2005 and 2006, and must built a bond with him quickly if the Destroyers offense is to have any success in ’08.
Key loss: DL Ken Jones (29 tackles, 10 sacks in 2007). Though replacing DB Jerald Brown will also be difficult, Jones wrecked havoc on opposing QBs all season. His 10 sacks could have just as easily been 20, and many of the errant throws that turned into interceptions were forced by Jones’ presence in the opposition’s backfield.
2008 Preview: For a team that won the National Conference last year, the Destroyers made a ton of changes to their roster. The entire offense, save Nagy, have all left, and the defense is a shell of its former self. There are no easy games in this division this season, and the schedule will probably prove to be more than the Destroyers can handle.
2008 will be a success if… someone can replace Jones on the defensive front. The best pass rusher left on this team is Kelvin Kinney, but now 35 years old, there’s almost no way that he can produce like Jones did for the defense.
It will be a very difficult task for the Destroyers just to reach the postseason, but as they proved last season, once you’re there, anything can happen.
Prediction: 6-10, 4th place Eastern Division
New York Dragons (5-11 in 2007, missed playoffs)
Odds to win ArenaBowl XXII: +3500
The heart and soul of the New York Dragons is QB Aaron Garcia. In just six games, he threw as many TD passes (46) as the rest of the team combined for in the other 10 games. Garcia, 37, returns for his 14th season in the league in search of his first ArenaBowl championship.
2007 Highlight: After having to watch his team get mauled by several teams early in the season while he recovered from an ankle injury, Garcia was back and better than ever in his six starts. The second to last of those starts was in New Orleans to face the VooDoo, who were also fighting for one of the last playoff spots in the National Conference. Garcia threw for a career high nine TDs without an INT, arguably the best game of his career. However, the play of the game was the final one. The Dragons, up by six, stuffed VooDoo QB Steve Bellisari on the goal line as the clock reached zero, preserving the most important victory of the season.
2007 Lowlight: The equation was painfully simple for Dragons fans going into their Week 17 showdown with Columbus: Win and you’re in, lose and you’re out. After opening up a 14-7 lead, the wheels fell off of the Dragons, who allowed Columbus to score 30 consecutive points to blow the game open. Their 74-43 defeat kept the Dragons at home, while the Columbus Destroyers went on to win the National Conference.
Key acquisition: DL Henry Taylor (19 tackles, 8 sacks for New Orleans in 2007). In what had to be the trade of the off-season, the Dragons picked up Taylor from the VooDoo for basically nothing. A member of the 2006 All-Arena team, Taylor should bring an instant pass rush to a team that has been awful in that department for years.
Key loss: WR/DB Will Holder (72 tackles, 5 INTs, 794 yards from scrimmage, 4 total TDs in 2007). Holder is one of the dying breed of true Ironmen in the AFL. Just about anything the Dragons needed him to do in his five year stint with the team was possible. There are DB’s that can put up his numbers and WR’s that can have his impact in the return game, but there are very few talents like Will Holder in the AFL.
2008 Preview: Morale is high for a Dragons team that is coping with the loss of old-timers Holder and WR Mike Horacek. If Garcia can stay healthy, he has a defense on the other side of the ball that should be much improved from their 60.4 PPG allowed last season. That’s a big ‘if,’ though.
2008 will be a success if… Garcia can stay healthy. The Dragons had four wins in Garcia’s six starts in 2007, and only two in the ten games without him. The longer he stays upright, the more likely the Dragons will reach the postseason. However, considering how injury prone Garcia is, the likelihood of seeing Garcia playing for more than about half the season is slim.
The Dragons will go as far as Garcia takes them, and with a lot of big time defenses in his division this year, that may not be very far.
Prediction: 4-12, 5th place Eastern Division
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