Picking Ryan ‘highly debatable’

By Terence Moore | Saturday, April 26, 2008, 07:14 PM

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Flowery Branch — Matt Ryan? Not a brutal pick for the Falcons at No. 3 overall in the NFL draft on Saturday, but it was far from brilliant. Mediocre comes to mind, and so does this thought: If Michael Vick wasn’t officially gone before as the face of the Falcons, he is now.

That is, unless Vick leaves his flag-football team in prison as an offensive tackle, defensive tackle or cornerback, among the slew of positions his former team still needs to solidify to become relevant again.

Whether the Falcons still need to fill Vick’s old position of quarterback after selecting Ryan is debatable.

Highly debatable.

These two things aren’t debatable: First, with Ryan’s selection, Falcons officials dramatically sacked the public whispers about whether No. 7 and his exciting but controversial ways ever will return to the franchise again. Second, if you go by logic when it comes to trying to change the momentum of a reeling franchise, the Falcons just blew it, especially with the extraordinary Glenn Dorsey sitting there on the draft board as the defensive tackle that they really need. That’s because they don’t have any defensive tackles worth mentioning. Not only that, franchises such as the Falcons with offensively and defensively impaired lines should start by building those lines.

Instead, the Falcons drafted a quarterback, and remember: They don’t have enough decent folks to block for the guy anyway, even if he does play any time soon. It also isn’t comforting to know that the Falcons tried to help Ryan’s plight by trading for another first-round pick at No. 21 to reach for Sam Baker, an offensive lineman with short arms and owner of a damaged hamstring last season at USC.

Ryan has normal arms, and he lacks health issues, but he does have history issues to overcome. Quarterbacks taken in the first round often evolve into Ryan Leaf, Tim Couch, David Carr or Alex Smith instead of somebody good. And, yes, Ryan has a nice resume. He completed 59 percent of his 654 passes last season at Boston College for 4,507 yards and 31 touchdowns. He also won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award and was the ACC Player of the Year.

It’s just that Leaf was Ryan after leading Washington State to the Rose Bowl for the first time in 67 years while throwing a Pac 10-record 33 touchdowns. Couch was Ryan after leaving Kentucky with NCAA records for completions in a season and career completion percentage (67). Carr was Ryan after winning the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award while making Fresno State significant in football for the first time ever as a Sports Illustrated cover boy. Alex Smith was Ryan after helping Urban Meyer jump to the Mighty Gators after Ryan became the mighty engine for Urban Meyer’s spread offense at Utah.

Let’s just say Leaf, Couch, Carr and Smith aren’t in Starr, Montana, Favre or Manning territory. “Yeah, I’ve understood that along the way, as far as the percentages,” said general manager Thomas Dimitroff, running his first draft for the Falcons, or any NFL team, for that matter. “However, I think with Matt, it’s a combination of the intelligence that he has. The leadership ability that he has. I can’t stress it enough. He not only has the ability to take the offense but the whole team [to success]. To me, that’s huge. “I’ve been around a situation in New England where we had a quarterback with that same ability.”

Speaking of New England and that quarterback, Dimitroff spent six seasons working in the Patriots’ scouting department, and this is the same Patriots franchise that won three of its four Super Bowls with Tom Brady leading the way.

Brady was a sixth-round pick.

With all of those picks for the Falcons (11 overall, including four among the top 48 to start the day), they could have selected Dorsey at No. 3 and taken a chance later in the draft on John David Booty, Chad Henne or Andre’ Woodson becoming their Tom Brady. After all, those quarterbacks aren’t that much more of an NFL gamble than the one they got.

TD>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
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>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>Terrance Moore

lets just hope and pray matt plays good for us and gets us a SB championship.

Yeah, lets not put unreasonable expectations on him early or anything.

yea the only time we got to the SB was with a journeyman, we should try what works for us in the past. Build high power Defense, and great run game, with a journeyman. we got 2 of the on this team.

im not talking about right away, but you would hope he could get us one during his tenure here.

Isn't that what you expect from a "franchise QB"? By selecting him #3, the front office is claiming that this is the QB who will lead us to a SB, or at the very least will make us a competitive post-season team each year. If he's not that kind of player then why spend millions of dollars and a top pick on him?

The front office are the ones comparing him to Tom Brady and Peyton Manning. They're selling this pick to fans using high expectations.

I HOPE they prove me wrong and I fully acknowledge they know more about football than I ever will. My gut tells me that he wasn't worth the pick and that Dorsey would have made a bigger impact on the team. I guess we'll have to see.

Also, I'm not one of these people who will jump his ass after his first three games and scream "I told you so". We won't know whether Ryan is a bust until his 3rd or even 4th year in the league, and I'm withholding judgment to see what he does with the team over the next several seasons. Again, I REALLY hope I'm wrong.

Also, I hope all the people defending the pick won't start screaming "I told you so" after a few pre-season games or even during his first season if he does well (ala Doug Johnson).

Eh, he's gotta have about 3 seasons before I can judge, unless he proves he REALLY sucks, or is REALLY good before then.

I just LOVE how Mel Kiper's stupid ass says something and it gets repeated by every yahoo in town, starting with Terence Moore.

From your other post, Iowa, detailing Sam Baker's scouting report:

Dave, that is a bit funny and whats ironic.
I heard an interview with Baker yesterday and he said, he did not know he had short arms until he read some of his own scouting reports. :huh:
BTW, he sounded like a good guy that is excited to be a Falcon.

One of the geniuses on NFL Total Access just repeated it, too!

6g65dd

I think Baker should start walking around with tape on his knuckles to make people think his arms are longer!

fgtb76

From J. Mike's blog:

Sounds like a solid pick, to me. I think "preserving" was probably mis-transcribed from "persevering."

It's raining here and I figured out why. Terrence Moore actually said something I agree with for a change.

This draft simply reassures the fans that IF there's a way to fuk something up, the Falcons will. 6g65dd 6g65dd 6g65dd 6g65dd 6g65dd

Read Dimitroff's logic in my post above yours. It's not nearly what people are making it out to be.

Also, my guess based on that quote is that Dimitroff compared the addition of Dorsey over our current crop of DTs and the mid-to-late round DTs likely to be available in the draft versus the addition of Ryan over our current crop of QBs and said "Ryan improves the team more."

Probably vastly more.

So I'm fine with this pick. It's not the pick I would have made, but I'm not an NFL scout or GM.

Ya hindsight is 20/20 but look at what could have been...

1 - DT Glenn Dorsey
1 - OT Jeff Otah (Trade up 2 spots higher)
2 - QB Brian Brohm
3a - LB Curtis Lofton? LB Dan Conner? LB Jonathan Goff?

Instead we draft who I fear could be Joey Harrington Jr (Ryan) and Todd Weiner Jr (Baker).

That`s my take also.
BTW, I think, fans underestimate how bad a shape the Falcons were in at the QB position.

Rob made an excellent earlier, few (if any) teams ever made to and won the Super Bowl based on being built around a DT.
It`s a fact, all of you perennial playoff teams have an elite QB.

I wouldn't complain about Todd Weiner, Jr.

And Ryan COULD be Harrington, but he COULD be much better, and I'd argue his intangibles and the fact that he played in a pro-style offense in college (while Joey played in the spread) weigh heavily in his favor.

Brohm and Henne slid for a reason. We weren't the only teams that passed on them, and Miami passed on Henne TWICE before taking him. The Ravens, who need a QB, took the spread-option but strong armed Flacco (did someone mention Harrington? Well, except for the "strong arm" part :lol: ) instead of both. That tells me A LOT about both players.

I would have preferred Otah to Baker, but only marginally. I think the FO is doing a great job in this draft. As I said before (probably in another thread), at least they appear to be drafting with a purpose.

We might have done more to improve our LOS but Brohm is higly likley to be failure in the most critical position.

It`s a statistical fact..
QB`s taken in the 1st round have a 50% hit rate for sucess.

QB`s taken in the 2nd round have only a 10% chance at being a sucess.

That's true for a lot of positions, OT and DT as well...

I can agree with that Dave, neither am I, but I think the more important needs are both lines and special teams.

We saw what happened last year to every QB we threw out there and it'll be the same IF they throw Ryan to the wolves this year. Hopefully Smitty won't do that and he'll sit a year while this new offense is perfected.

The thing that pisses me off most, and granted I didn't watch or listen to the draft, just from what I've read, Atlanta gave up two valuable picks for Baker. IF TD was going to make a deal with higher picks, why didn't he go back to the Raiders for their first, which would have given us both Ryan and Dorsey.

From the rumors I was hearing it could have been done............

But it's a done deal now, so we'll have to wait and see.

There is a big positive in all this. It puts the case to rest that Convick won't be back in Atlanta so the nutthuggers are probably crying today, which could explain this rain too......

All due respect SB but I think a OT or DT taken in the 1st or 2nd rounds have a much higher % rate for success but have a far lesser impact on the overall success of the team.

It`s a matter of calculated risk verses rewards.

Keep in mind, you`r highly unlikely to win anything without an elite QB.

FWIW, this isn't entirely accurate. Everyone keeps saying it, but it's not right.

We gave up 2 valuable draft picks and a 4th for Baker, a 3rd and a 5th.

And, FWIW, we have 3 3rds and can still probably fill ALL of the holes with what we have left. I've always said a team makes splashes in the 1st and 2nd rounds, but they really build a team in the 3rd-6th.

FWIW, we got Boley, Norwood, Schaub and Lewis all in the 3rd or later. If we get a team full of guys like that, we'll be just fine.

Take a look. OT is the most top heavy position in the league. Meaning, if you don't invest in one early they aren't going to pan out...

The charts show what round the league's starters were taken in. The blue bar shows the % that are league starters and the red bar shows the % that are starters and still with the team that drafted them.

T1 = Top tackle on the team:







http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/04/2...nfl-draft/3828/

This is partly the reason why I was really hoping for Jake Long...

But that, obviously, was out of our control.

And since everyone seems to think Baker was a "reach" at 21, what in the hell would have been said if we'd drafted Williams at no. 3?

That chart explains why they traded back up into the 1st to select Baker more than anything.

Hell yeah, I wanted us to draft Jake Long like everybody else.
As we know, that was never an option. :mellow:

True...

I was more hoping for someone like Otah if we were going to trade up but at least we know that Baker should be solid in pass protection.

Someone like Carl Nicks would be a great addition to the O-line. I think this draft could be redeemed in my eyes if we can land someone like Nicks and a DT or 2 along with a solid CB.

I wanted Dorsey :( I have seen Matt throw too many interceptions... I really hope I am wrong about this, but first thoughts are...

WE FUCKED UP... again.

That's what I fear...

Joey Harrington was the 3rd pick overall in a weak QB class and was drafted by a team that needed O-line and defensive help...

Harrington was a gun slinger in college who threw too many interceptions. He had to adjust his game in the NFL to play more conservative and throw less INTs...

I'm not going to compare Matt to Joey just yet, but I was hoping we would use this year to reinforce our trenches and get some help on the outside on D. We could have used Redman/Harrington/Shockley in 2008-2009 and picked up a high pick QB next year.

The wind left my sails when they announced Ryan :( He has some positives, but those INT's scare me, we have had enough INT prone QB's, I wanted to see a O-line built, geared toward protection, something we have sorely needed for MANY years.

The "too many interceptions" thing is WAY overblown.

The guy had 654 attempts! That's a 3% INT to attempt ratio.

He also had 31 TDs. That's 1.9 TDs for every INT.

I'm not buying the "he throws too many INTs" line. He lacked a supporting cast at BC. We have 2 solid receivers, including one (White) who may end up being a perennial pro-bowler. They actually used White yesterday on ESPN as an example of a receiver who can get off the jam and create space, and they said NO receiver in this draft has really shown that ability. So it's safe to say he'll have a better fare of it with the Falcons.

Unless he throws it to Jenkins nr6

Nobody wanted Brohm and Connor is still waiting for a call.

Man all the crying is driving me crazy.

I hear ya... Fortunately there are some guys good enough to redeem this draft in the 3rd round. If we bolster the O-line, D-line, and get a good DB or 2 I would feel a lot better about this draft.

FWIW, Steve Young said Ryan is the only QB in this draft OR next year's draft who can legitimately be a franchise QB. Young said (before the pick) that if we don't pick Ryan, we'll regret it.

I'm not sure about all that, but I do think it puts to bed the "we could have picked a QB next year" argument.

Also, we will now be starting two first-rounders on the left side of the line, AND I'd bet we get another tackle, another guard, and possibly another center (I want Velaszco out of Georgia). We'll also get our DT, probably in the 3rd. Your elite LTs go in the 1st round, and we got Baker. But you can get a LOT of value in the middle to late rounds for o-linemen on the interior, and we have some options at RT.

As one example, our best lineman for the last few years -- Forney -- was a 6th round selection, as I recall.

It's really hit or miss that late, mostly miss...

Maybe in the 6th, but for the 3rd and 5th rounds, you can still get value. Yes, even at that it's hit or miss for the elites, but most teams don't start 5 1st rounders on their o-line, so I don't quite see how it can be "mostly miss" in the middle rounds.

Agreed on the 6th -- I don't want a team full of 6th rounders, either. But they don't all need to be 1st rounders. We have two. I'd wager that's about right for most good o-lines. Now we need to develop them.

Pick of Ryan gives Falcon franchise a face-lift.
By Vic Carucci | NFL.com
Senior Columnist


http://www.nfl.com/draft/story?id=09000d5d...eo&confirm=true

What Vic is saying, the Falcons had to do it.

You also have to get your colon checked when you are 40.

Pain is good.

There is noway to deny the business aspects of the situation. 7i87,m7t8