| QUOTE (Iowahorse @ Apr 29 2008, 01:47 PM) |
| Rookie QBs Ryan and Flacco Will Flop Contributed by Brandt Merritt - Posted: April 29, 2008 3:27:28 AM There is definitely something pointless about doing a breakdown of which players selected in last weekend's NFL Draft will have the most fantasy impact this coming season only two days after said draft took place. It's pretty hard to come close without knowing how position battles will shake out, who will get injured or dozens of other variables that go into having a successful rookie season. Ah, but it's my job to try to sift through all that and figure out who will shine and who will disappoint this fall. Plus it's just plain fun. The one thing that struck me the most when I started reviewing the draft was how few skill position players (QB, RB, WR, TE) were chosen in the first two rounds. In fact, only eight were picked in the first round of 31 selections. There were 16 of 32 in the second round, giving us a total of 24 of 63 picks in the first two rounds who play skill positions, which happen to be pretty much the only positions that matter in fantasy football. This means that there likely will be a pretty good number of later round picks who fare well this season. So, who will the winners and losers be? Here's my best guess: Most Likely to Succeed Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland - The best athlete in the draft; doesn't matter that he's going to a terrible team. Jonathan Stewart, RB, Carolina - Will split time with DeAngelo Williams, but should be the workhorse before long. Felix Jones, RB, Dallas - Sharing carries with Marion Barber will be cake for Jones, who should break off a few long TD runs during the season. John Carlson, TE, Seattle - Seahawks invested a second-round pick in him, and there's really no one on the depth chart he can't beat. Donnie Avery, WR, St. Louis - There's Torry Holt and then . . .hmmm. Marc Bulger will throw plenty to get this guy involved. James Hardy, WR, Buffalo - Trent Edwards will love having this 6-foot-6 target in the red zone. Limas Sweed, WR, Pittsburgh - Similar to Hardy with Buffalo, Sweed gives Ben Roethlisberger a big target down the sideline and near the goal line. Kevin Smith, RB, Detroit - Only has to beat out Tatum Bell, which should be no problem for this all-around back. Taylor Mehlhaff, K, New Orleans - The Saints will score points, and their kicker now is Martin Gramatica. That won't last long. Adrian Arrington, WR, New Orleans - They struck gold with Marques Colston two years ago, and this productive receiver from Michigan could be another seventh-round steal. Most Likely to Fail Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta - See JaMarcus Russell, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning, etc., etc. Rookie QBs just do not fare all that well. Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore - See Matt Ryan, above. Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee - Yeah, he's fast, but Vince Young still can't throw and the Titans will be running against eight-man fronts all season. Eddie Royal, WR, Denver - He'll probably get playing time, but I don't think Jay Cutler will progress as much this season. Fred Davis, TE, Washington - Just don't see how he'll have many balls thrown his way with Chris Cooley in front of him. Dexter Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay - He won't see the field much as long as Galloway is healthy, and he'll take some time adjusting to a complicated offense. Earl Bennett, WR, Chicago - Who, exactly, is going to play quarterback for the Bears? Andre Caldwell, WR, Cincinnati - The Bengals may be depleted at receiver, but this is not the guy who will break the Florida Gator receiving curse. Kellen Davis, TE, Chicago - Was highly rated going into draft but is stuck behind Desmond Clark and Greg Olson. Mike Hart, RB, Indianapolis - Not enough tread left on the tires. Period. Permalink: http://fantasyclubhouse.theledger.com/defa...sp?item=2195419 |