http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide...e-polls/IN.html

There's the link. If you multiply the cells by the marginals then you can get the estimated vote results, which right now show Hillary with about 53% to Obama's 47%.

Of course, that's what exit polls showed in PA, which wound up being a 10% win for Hillary, so who knows?

Whatever kind of stuff they smoke up there in Indiana, I want some of it. Must be some pretty powerful stuff:

54% of Indiana voters say Hillary Clinton is honest.

Huh??? So she was getting fired at by snipers in Bosnia?

This is a primary election, so 54% of Indiana DEMOCRATS say she's honest. Imagine how low her honesty rating is among Independents and Republicans.

I like that they haven't called Indiana. I love that they called NC. Sure he probably won't win Indi, but it's worth clicking around the map to see how close it will be.

Fuck CNN!

They are talking about tonight looking like a "split decision"?

Good god!

He's winning the MUCH bigger state and he is certain to win it by a MUCH bigger margin. Are they being directed by fucking Dan Reeves or something?

"Hey guys . . . we're down by eight with 13 seconds left in the game . . . let's kick a filed goal and claim victory!"

Or better yet, it's a basketball game and Obama is up 10 in the last minute. Clinton is scoring 2's while he keeps drilling 3's.

Obama actually has a chance to win Indiana. Lake County hasn't reported yet, and that's a suburb of Chicago.

He's got Indiana.

If he pulls out the W in Indiana then it's lights out for Clinton.

Just face the fact that Obama didn't execute.

Lake County still not reporting, but doesn't look like it won't be enough to pull into the lead.

No . . . . it will never be lights out for Clinton. She'll keep scraping and clawing and destroying him and the party and this country in her desperate obsession for power.

Why not? I've heard there are some BIG numbers out there. What is he expected to do there? Will it be similar to his percentages in Marion County?

And don't forget Tipiecanoe!!!

HM, You live in Fannin County right? Read my post in the witch is dead thread.

We've got a place up there. I love it.

But FUCK CNN!!!

BILL SNEIDER DID IT AGAIN!!!

Totally dismissed the operation chaos effect. "slightly more of the Republicans voted for Clinton, just like Rush told them too . . . but it was only 11% of the vote."

STUPID MOTHER FUCKER!!!! If Clinton hangs on, it will be BECAUSE of the Republicans gaming the vote.

Before Texas, less than HALF that many Republicans were voting and they were leaning Obama by MORE than 2/3's.

Do the math. If she's going to win, it will be because at least 5% of the voters were screwing things up.

There will only be about 40-65k votes coming out of Lake County tonight, and Hillary's up by a good 40k. So I seriously doubt Obama can win. BUT, if all the reports out of Lake County about huge Obama margins are true it might be enough to close it to a virtual tie, which would be a psychological catastrophe for Clinton. It wouldn't be quite as dramatic a KO, but the whole "split decision" storyline won't sell anymore, especially among superdelegates.

It's over, her win was not enough... he made up all the ground he lost in PA. They both also took the first steps towards bringing the party together, I think she will be a good attack dog as VP, something Edwards was not good at.

Also keep in mind that most of the headlines, stories, and TV reporting storylines that we've been watching over the past 4 hours were written mid-afternoon when exit polls were showing Clinton winning Indiana by 5 points. A lot of the stories that will show up tomorrow morning are being written right now, which means the news tomorrow will be a decisive win in NC and a tight race in IN. If Obama closes to a 1% or so win, then all the reporters start scrambling for a storyline and they'll probably revert back to the delegate and Obama's success among the supes over the past few weeks. By late morning all the newspapers and TV shows might be reporting about how this was a huge missed opportunity for Clinton, perhaps her last best opportunity to make a dent in Obama's lead.

I know that. You know that. HM knows that. Suppo knows that. Everybody in this damned country knows that except for the media.

HM and I are talking about what it will take to get the media to finally start reporting what we've known for two months now.

The Mayor of Gary has hinted that Obama may have enough to catch Clinton!

early reports show 75/25 Obama coming from Lake Co, if that holds up he wins Indiana!

This is not good for Obama. It stinks of all kinds of Chicago vote fraud. At least that's how it will be spun . . .

this will further marginalize Obama.

He may get it under 10,000, but I think he's going to come up just a bit short. It's still, in essence, a victory for him.

He erases PA easily.

That would be just fine. Essentially split the delegate vote. It does what she could not afford to let happen: Stops the bleeding.

Most importantly, his prime time speech was the best I've seen since Iowa. I hope it gives him a general election bounce.

And then some. Popular vote debate is essentially over. The folks on CNN are essentially mocking the Clinton surrogates.

He will be back ahead nationally by 10 points in the next polls taken after today.

She is done, all but the crying.

Goddam...I go outside to grade some papers and come back to this...

Candidate Vote % Delegates
Hillary Rodham Clinton .
606,497
50.7%
Barack Obama
589,888
49.3%

57% of precincts reporting in Lake County. I'm hoping I was wrong about him not being able to catch her. Again, if he wins IN even by a few votes then she'll be forced to concede because the supes will start lining up behind him.

She might even concede by the weekend.

Tim Russert calls it:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lklfIPBK4Zg

Hell no! I'm listening to the Mayor of Gary right now. If he wins Indiana, this yahoo will be on the news 24/7 at least until W. Va. He will be as bad as Jeremiah Wright by the time this thing is over. People will claim that it was a totol fraudulent result.

The big picture will be much better for Obama if she squeeks this out. Then the Lake County crap will be forgotten and the net effect will be a lost opportunitty for her.

It's over . . . she'll squeak it out. She's lost face, lost momentum. I hope Russert is correct.

And the world will never know Mayor Clay.

Wolf Blitzer just declared tonight a "split decision"??!!?

whatever

Wolf Blitzer is a fuck face.

Lake County almost completely reported, and Obama carried it 55-45%. Not as great as what was reported.

Looks like Clinton won IN by about 2%. Not as bad as a tie, but still a squeaker and might still be enough to push her out if the supes break against her.

So is Bill Schneider. Maybe I'll send them an email to that effect . . .

Another death blow for Clinton: They just made huge to do about Hillary's #'s tonight. She KILLED Obama among voters over 65.

Earlier, I asked "which base do you want to screw"?

I'll tell you who they want to screw. As much as I hate to say this, in these circumstances, you won't to screw the old bitches!!!

Don't give JDaveG any ideas for a new thread in Chatterbox.

Clinton Aides Doubtful About Future

Candidate Renews Efforts to Get Party to Admit Michigan, Florida Votes

By Perry Bacon Jr. and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writers
Wednesday, May 7, 2008; Page A07

INDIANAPOLIS, May 6 -- After failing to win the decisive sweep in North Carolina and Indiana that could have reshaped the Democratic race, disappointed aides to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton conceded it would be difficult for her to catch Sen. Barack Obama in either delegates or overall votes in the six remaining contests.

The outcome caused the candidate and her campaign to intensify their efforts to persuade party leaders to include the results of disqualified contests in Michigan and Florida, both of which she won. The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws committee is scheduled to meet on May 31 to consider two challenges pending on whether, and how, to seat delegates from those states.

"Absent some sort of miracle on May 31st, it's going to be tough for us," said a senior Clinton official who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to be frank. "We lost this thing in February. We're doing everything we can now . . . but it's just an uphill battle."

As voters went to the polls yesterday, Clinton tried to recast the terms of the race, telling reporters that the number of delegates needed to win is "2,209," rather than the 2,025 needed without Michigan and Florida.

"There are going to be the rest of these contests, which are very significant, and then in June, if we haven't done it already, we're going to have to resolve Florida and Michigan," she told reporters during a daytime event at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. "They were legitimate elections."

In a late-night speech here, Clinton said that "it would be a little strange to have a nominee chosen by 48 states."

Her aides also tried to stoke concerns yesterday among elected officials and party leaders, known as superdelegates, about whether Obama could win in November, with one warning of an "October surprise" that could ruin his chances.

"The superdelegates have to decide who is the best candidate to take on John McCain," campaign chairman Terence A. McAuliffe said. "Over the last week, that advantage has shifted to Senator Clinton."

Campaign officials said they would remind superdelegates that Indiana was a state that Obama aimed to win early on and at one point described as a tiebreaker in the race. They also said the results showed that Clinton continued to gain the support of the white, working-class voters they contend will be key to winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio and other swing states in November.

Still, Clinton officials were increasingly worried that superdelegates, absent some overwhelming new evidence to make the case for Clinton, would move toward Obama to put an end to a race that many are worried is harming their chances in the fall.

"I don't think tonight is a game-changer," said Steve Grossman, a Clinton fundraiser and former chair of the DNC. "I don't think the results are going to surprise many people."

A Clinton adviser said the situation was increasingly becoming one in which "she cannot be nominated and he can't get elected."

The Clinton campaign has tried to sway voters and superdelegates for weeks by pointing to opinion polls that show Obama's favorability ratings steadily decreasing since his string of victories in February. His popularity hit bottom in recent weeks after Obama was quoted as saying that small-town Americans are "bitter" and with the airing of controversial remarks by his former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah A. Wright Jr.

But 64 percent of voters in Indiana and 69 percent in North Carolina said they would be satisfied with Obama as the Democratic nominee, according to exit polls, in line with the 69 percent who said the same in previous contests.

Likewise, superdelegates have continued to support Obama. In the two weeks since the Pennsylvania primary, which Obama lost by 10 percentage points, he has gained the support of about two dozen superdelegates, to the dozen or so that have backed Clinton.

Clinton's loss in North Carolina also pointed to an increasingly complicated dynamic for her campaign: More than 90 percent of African Americans, one of the most loyal factions in the Democratic party, favored Obama. That not only prevented Clinton from coming close but also makes it harder for her to woo superdelegates who would be loath to derail the chances of the most viable black presidential candidate in the country's history.

Rep. Brad Miller, an undecided superdelegate from North Carolina, said on the eve of his state's primary that he would be uncomfortable telling the African American community in his Raleigh area district that he would choose Clinton over Obama simply because he deemed her more electable.

"I'm not sure how I could tell them that," he said.

Clinton plans to continue to reach out to working-class voters with her plan for a gas tax "holiday" in the six contests that remain, but campaign aides acknowledged that changing the dynamics in any of those places will be difficult. The candidates are expected to split the remaining races, with Obama favored in Oregon, Montana and South Dakota and with Clinton given the edge in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

Clinton's last chance for a big upset is in Oregon, where she will go Thursday, but she faces an uphill climb among an electorate that one of her aides described as "demographically polarized."

No surprise how Fox News spun tonight:

Sean Hannity is the biggest fucking tool on TV and Radio. His racist, anti-Obama agenda is ridiculously obvious. Now he's showing sympathy for Hillary with the Fla and Mich voter issues. The fact that this punk is as popular as he is absolutely astounds me. :angry:

How long until we hear about him flashing "gang symbols" during his speech?