Pundits Declare the Race Over

By JIM RUTENBERG
Published: May 8, 2008

Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against Senator Hillary Clinton’s continued viability as a presidential candidate.

The moment came shortly after midnight Eastern time, captured in a devastatingly declarative statement from Tim Russert of NBC News: “We now know who the Democratic nominee’s going to be, and no one’s going to dispute it,” he said on MSNBC. “Those closest to her will give her a hard-headed analysis, and if they lay it all out, they’ll say: ‘What is the rationale? What do we say to the undeclared super delegates tomorrow? Why do we tell them you’re staying in the race?’ And tonight, there’s no good answer for that.”

It was not exactly Walter Cronkite declaring that the Vietnam War would end in stalemate. But the impact was apparent almost immediately, starting with The Drudge Report, the online news billboard that is the home page to many political reporters in Washington and news producers in New York. It had as its lead story a link to a YouTube clip of Mr. Russert’s comments, accompanied by a photograph of a beaming Mr. Obama with his wife, Michelle, and the headline, “The Nominee.”

The thought echoed throughout the world of instant political analysis, steamrolling the Clinton campaign’s attempts to promote the idea that her victory in Indiana was nonetheless an upset in the face of Mr. Obama’s heavy spending and his campaign’s predictions that he would win there, or that she could still come back if delegates in Florida and Michigan are seated.

“I think there’s an increasing presumption tonight that Obama’s going to be the nominee,” Chris Wallace, the Fox News host, said to Karl Rove, President Bush’s longtime political guru, who is now a Fox News analyst. The statement preceded a discussion about what a general election race would look like between Mr. Obama and the presumptive Republican nominee, Senator John McCain.

A posting on the DailyKos Web site included a mock memo to Mrs. Clinton titled, “To-Do List Before Dropping Out.”

Speaking on CNN, David Gergen, a former adviser to several presidents, including Mrs. Clinton’s husband, said, “I think the Clinton people know the game is almost up.”

Stating it more bluntly, Bob Franken, the political analyst, told the MSNBC host Dan Abrams shortly after 2 a.m. Eastern time, “Let’s put it right on the table: It’s over. It’s over.”

And it picked up again on the major morning news programs in a devastating cascade of sound bites for Mrs. Clinton and her campaign.

Bob Schieffer on the CBS News program “Early Show”: “Basically, Maggie, this race is over.”

George Stephanopoulos on the ABC program “Good Morning America”: “This nomination fight is over.”

Matt Lauer on the NBC News program “Today”: “Good morning, is it over?”

The commentary was punctuated by some brutal morning newspaper headlines: “Toast!” blared The New York Post; “Hil Needs a Miracle” declared The New York Daily News.

Of course, the political news media have not exactly showered themselves in glory this year. They have frequently made predictions that have been upended by actual votes from actual people.

But their opinions matter as much as ever in this late phase of the primary race, when Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama are battling to sway the opinions of the uncommitted superdelegates — the party leaders and elected officials with automatic convention seats, whose support Mrs. Clinton will need if she is to snatch the nomination from Mr. Obama.

The superdelegates are a largely elite group that presumably will track the conventional wisdom of Washington’s class of political insiders as they weigh their decisions. And the big donors and fund-raisers whose help Mrs. Clinton will need to continue her campaign are similarly tapped into the news media echo-sphere.

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign indicated early this morning that it would try to prove the commentariat wrong once again. “Pundits have gleefully counted Senator Clinton out before, and each time they have been wrong, because they don’t decide this race — voters do,” Howard Wolfson, Mrs. Clinton’s communications director, wrote in an e-mail message. “And as the results in Indiana demonstrated, voters are rewarding Senator Clinton with victories, even in states Senator Obama predicted victory in.”

Mr. Wolfson’s statement came in quick response to a request for comment that was sent to him by e-mail after 2 a.m. Eastern time — an indication of the campaign’s eagerness to undo the new conventional wisdom before it hardens.

The Clinton campaign initially had some reason for optimism.

Many of the gloomier assessments of her chances came late Tuesday night and early this morning, when it appeared that she would not win Indiana as easily as exit polls and early vote tallies indicated earlier in the night. By then, early newspaper deadlines had passed and many voters were probably either asleep or off watching Jay Leno or David Letterman.

If East Coast viewers of “NCIS” saw no news the rest of the night, they certainly went to bed believing that Mrs. Clinton’s campaign was still there to fight another day. CBS, which broadcasts the show, declared that she had won the Indiana primary at 8:09 p.m. Eastern time, and Jeff Greenfield, the CBS analyst, reported, “We go on to June 3, Hillary Clinton got the win she needs to press her case.”

Even as Mrs. Clinton’s real-vote lead over Mr. Obama in the state dwindled to just 16,000 as later returns came in, the CBS News Web site held on to its headline, “Clinton Wins Ind., Obama Takes N.C.”

The headline was vindicated when several other news organizations declared that Mrs. Clinton had indeed won in Indiana, five hours after CBS made its projection. And it is that view of Tuesday’s results that most voters awoke to on Wednesday: A split decision for Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama, no matter how narrow.

The question is, will the analysts be talking that way throughout the day — and if not, where does it leave Mrs. Clinton?

As of this morning, the climb for her seemed steeper.

The drumbeat from the media's already underway and the storyline is now about how, not whether, she will choose to exit the race. I'm not sure what she winds up doing, but at least the media is saying what everybody already knows -- she's finished.

May 7, 2008
Uncertainties Mark Next Steps
By PATRICK HEALY

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton is bracing for one of the most difficult days of her presidential race on Wednesday, anticipating new pressure to quit the race and facing a set of financial and logistical decisions that will determine just how robust a campaign she can continue to wage against Senator Barack Obama, according to several advisers and political allies.

And that is only for starters, these people say: After her narrow win in the Indiana primary and steep loss in North Carolina, working off a few hours of sleep, Mrs. Clinton is also bound to think over a question in her own head and to hear it from at least some supporters — should she continue running?

The advisers and allies to Mrs. Clinton said in interviews on Tuesday night that her victory in Indiana — even by less than 2 percentage points — made it less certain that she would withdraw from the race. (Her advisers had said a loss would likely lead her to quit.) Yet these supporters said that North Carolina had come to be seen as a major test in the eyes of the Clintons and their aides, and the severity of her loss to Mr. Obama there was dispiriting.

They were also girding for the possibility of more bad news. Her campaign is deep in debt and believed to be near broke, and her advisers made the unusual move on Tuesday night of refusing to confirm or deny whether Mrs. Clinton had made a loan to her campaign to keep it afloat. She made such a loan, of $5 million, in January, and she pleaded for donations in her televised primary night remarks on Tuesday, even reminding people that they could donate on her Web site.

Mrs. Clinton did add an event on Wednesday in West Virginia, which holds its primary on Tuesday, as a way to demonstrate that she remains politically viable. But even some of her most optimistic supporters were measured in their comments on Tuesday night about how well-positioned she was to stay in the race.

“It’s hard to answer that question — she has lost in North Carolina but it looks like she won Indiana, which everyone expected,” said Alan Patricof, one of Mrs. Clinton’s national finance chairmen. “I think she’s committed to going forward, but it’s hard to know — she is the one to make the decision about what she does. And a lot of us have trust and faith in her to make the best decision.”

Clinton advisers say that the results were far from the best outcome that Mrs. Clinton could have expected — a strong win in Indiana and a narrow loss in North Carolina — and left her camp certain that she would face new calls to leave the race.

The advisers said they had arguments ready to combat those calls: Mrs. Clinton did have a victory Tuesday night; blue-collar voters, women, and white voters were still behind her in strong numbers; and her votes in the unsanctioned Florida and Michigan primaries could be settled in late May by the Democratic National Committee.

Yet for all that, the advisers also said that they could not predict Mrs. Clinton’s exact thinking or mood (or, important, her husband’s) as her day-after unfolds — including her reaction to what she may hear from super-delegates, the party leaders and elected officials who will likely determine the nomination. She plans to meet and talk with some of her super-delegate supporters on Wednesday.

One question is whether senior Democrats who are trusted by the candidate and her husband will ask her to consider quitting the race — politically savvy elected officials such as Gov. Edward Rendell of Pennsylvania or Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey, or friends with wide connections in the Democratic Party, such as Vernon Jordan or Robert Rubin. (Mr. Rendell and spokeswomen for he and Mr. Corzine did not return phone calls on Tuesday night.)

“I wouldn’t be surprised at all if a Rendell or a Vernon Jordan was prepared to weigh in with the Clintons, because the path to the nomination is just looking tougher for us,” said one top fund-raiser for Mrs. Clinton and longtime friend of the couple, who spoke on condition of anonymity to describe his mood and that some other fund-raisers.

“Many of us thought she had to win both Indiana and North Carolina to show that she could pull off surprises now in order to pull off the biggest surprise of all — winning the nomination despite being behind right now,” this fund-raiser added. “And she didn’t.”

Some independent political analysts said Tuesday night that it is almost a certainty — at this late stage of a primary campaign, with 50 primaries and caucuses concluded and only 6 left — that the Clintons and their closest supporters would at least discuss whether she should continue to battle Mr. Obama. It may only further weaken him if he emerges as the nominee; tarnish him in potential swing states that still have primaries, such as West Virginia; and also hurt Mrs. Clinton’s chances of being selected as his running mate.

“The campaign may go on but the contest is now over: Obama is the Democratic nominee for president,” said Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist who was a senior adviser to the Gore and Kerry presidential campaigns. “Now the decision for her is how she wants to end this.

“The people who have her best interests at heart, they would now say to her, ‘You ought to really think about not protracting this, because you will only look selfish in the weeks to come,’ ” Mr. Shrum said. “Her Pennsylvania win bought her permission to go on. But then her narrow victory in Indiana and this smashing defeat in North Carolina — there is no rationale for her to continue.”

One Clinton adviser called the North Carolina loss in particular “a very significant turning point” because Mrs. Clinton, the former president and some of their advisers had become so excited about their prospects of a surprise victory there. Instead Mr. Obama beat her there by about 15 percentage points.

Two Clinton advisers acknowledged last night that the campaign mishandled expectations for the North Carolina primary by raising the possibility of a close race or even a narrow Clinton victory there.

They chose to allocate millions of dollars, key operatives and full days of Mrs. Clinton and especially her husband to the state. One of the advisers said they probably could have spent half of the time and money there and won roughly the same result.

Given the sharply limited resources of the Clinton campaign, competing in North Carolina only took away from the Indiana operation, and the very narrow result there deprives her of the bragging rights and momentum that she enjoyed after her victory in Pennsylvania two weeks ago.

Both Mrs. Clinton and President Clinton had moments over the last two weeks when they thought a surprise victory in North Carolina might be possible, the advisers said. Nonetheless, the advisers said that she had to compete there because winning a share of the popular vote and the delegates mattered in all states, with Mr. Obama leading in both counts.

Clinton advisers also said that the candidates and her team would discuss her political message going forward and whether her signature issue over the last two weeks — a suspension of the federal gas tax this summer — was worth extending to the upcoming primary states of West Virginia and Kentucky.

While some advisers said that the message helped make Mrs. Clinton more popular with working class and financially struggling voters, some analysts said that it angered Democrats in Washington who dislike the gas tax idea, and that it was too small an issue to run on credibly. (Mr. Obama opposes the gas tax relief, calling it a gimmick.)

“In 1976 Ronald Reagan had a big principled argument to continue against Gerald Ford, built around détente and economic policy, and in ’80 Kennedy had a big principled argument about health care and economic policy,” said Mr. Shrum, who worked on the Kennedy campaign. “What is her big principled argument against Obama? The gas tax holiday?”

Perhaps more than anything, the Clinton campaign’s problems with financial resources — a recurring headache during the primary season — appear to be her most immediate challenge, according to several fund-raisers and advisers.

After spending heavily during the six-week race in Pennsylvania, and then over the last two weeks in two states, Mrs. Clinton is believed to be close to broke again, not to mention millions of dollars in debt, advisers say.

Her campaign has been particularly successful raising money online in the hours and days after primary night victories, often bragging about the financial tallies in frequent e-mail blasts. While Mrs. Clinton, in her televised primary night remarks Tuesday, did make a pitch to supporters to donate quickly on her website — even giving its address — there were no campaign e-mail sent out Tuesday night or Wednesday morning about money that had been raised online so far.

Shortly after midnight Wednesday, she also sent an e-mail to donors asking for money — even though this solicitation was briefer than previous ones, and the tone was more of gratitude for earlier help than of enthusiasm for the contests ahead.

Clinton advisers and the campaign chairman, Terry McAuliffe, refused to say Tuesday if Mrs. Clinton had made a loan to her campaign out of personal funds, nor would they say if a loan were in the works.

A major topic of her meetings on Wednesday will be how, and whether, the campaign can raise significant new sums when she has relatively little momentum and when so many donors have already contributed the maximum amount, her advisers say. She has a fund-raiser scheduled in Washington on Wednesday night and one in New York in honor of Mother’s Day on Saturday.

Mrs. Clinton initially had no public campaign events on Wednesday; her camapign announced the West Virginia trip at 3:42 a.m. She had been considering going on the morning news shows on Wednesday, but chose not to, her advisers said, because Mr. Obama was not appearing on them and she believed that Tuesday’s results would focus the interviews on her struggles.

But for anyone wondering if she wanted to continue running, her advisers pointed to her schedule for Thursday: She has campaign events scheduled in West Virginia, South Dakota, and Oregon, which all have nominating contests over the next four weeks.

Her advisers acknowledged, though, that Thursday’s events could be canceled if her plans changed.

The fat lady should be singing instead of still campaigning. b667ur