It was pretty obvious today that the tone of the election has changed dramatically since Obama was announced as the winner in North Carolina. Obama is now the presumptive nominee and he will focus his message on uniting the Party and getting broad support for the general election. Clinton will actually take on the roll Huckabee played in February. She'll be the Washington Generals, the college baseball teams playing the pro's in spring training, the sparring partner, the Colmes . . . She'll stick around to make it look like a fight, keep Obama sharp, but under no circumstances will she hurt or embarress the champ.

The last bit might be tricky. The next two of three primaries are polling as poorly for Obama as anything we've seen so far. This could play to his favor or be a problem. Clinton is out of money but she'll keep running a positive campaign on what she has. Obama will campaign hard in Appalachia (ok, it might be a reach to call Ky. Appalachia) Those states will be ALL about the general election. If he can close the gap it would be good. If he could pull of a win, it would be a huge message that he can win the Archie Bunker Democrats. Maybe those folks just need to see OTHER folks like them VOTING for him. He can be helped along by superdelegates and other endorsements in those states as the primary dates near.

It's really an incredible opportunity for the Democrats. 1) They have total control over when this ends. 2) Obama has the resources to keep going to the end without taking a hit. In fact ,3) it will broaden his support and potential funding because he can essentially focus on each of the remaining states. This will mean that 4) He will have campaigned in all 50 states. Excuse me 48 states. Florida and Mich. will be worked out

So this will work out one of two ways: The supers keep dripping Obama's way so that on Tuesday, June 3rd, at 9:00 pm eastern time, All the major networks call South Dakota for Obama (except Fox, who gets confused and tries to figure out why they can't find any election action in Bismark) and he makes a rousing exception speech in the heart of prime time. Every state gets to participate in the election. Every vote is counted, Clinton bows out graciously, heartily endorses Obama and life is good.

OR . . . .He gets so close after June 3rd (again, this has everything to do with how the supers announce and very little to do with the actual primary results) that at some point this month they announce some kind of vote in Michigan and Florida. The problem is that he might lose those states, which would put a damper on things. So maybe the solution is to just give her the damn delegates she won in those states and make sure Obama gets enough supers to get him where he needs to get.

Under that scenario, NO ONE feels disenfranchised. Every state for the general is in play, and life is good.

Come on . . . I pulled that out of my own ass . . .

Comments?

It's got a beat but you can't dance to it. I give one thumbs up. fgtb76

I was going to comment, but now I'd rather not touch it...

That's what she said.

Literally. She just said it.

Holy fuck that was long.

I didn't even read it :huh:

guten posten

OK. . . I was wrong.

Could Clinton possibly do more to divide the party than to 1) play the race card and 2) accuse Obama of disenfranchising voters the way the Republicans did in 2000?

Well, that's just what she did today.

And it has me thoroughly puzzled because it does nothing whatsoever of improving your chances of a nomination. Nothing. Her Archie Bunker democrats might buy this crap, but they don't matter anymore. It's the supers that she need. And this sort of crap just pisses them off. So instead of the sweet scenario I (delusionally) envisioned, she creates a scenario in which 1) Obama is further marginalized as a "black" candidate (remember HILLERY started out with a strong majority of black support) 2) Her supporters feel like Obama didn't let them vote and 3) they feel like the DEMOCRATIC party elite screwed them out of her nomination.

Granted all three of those are patently absurd, but we're not talking about rational thinkers here, we're talking about Hillery's supporters. Unfortunately, Obama sort of needs them, doesn't he?

So here's the question: WHAT DOES SHE HAVE TO GAIN WITH THIS SHIT? Hillery 12?

She's cracking up. The fact is she's losing to a candidate that she thought she was superior to and she's not handling it well. Her massive ego dictates that she continues on. Democratic party be damned.

I don't think so . . . she is taking very specific steps that do nothing to enhance her chances of winning the nomination but DO undermine his ability to win in November.

She's smart. She's not crazy. The only purpose is to improve her chances to run against McCain in 2012.

I'm dying for another explanation.

How about she is a bitch? :dunno:
Or maybe she does believe she damage Barack enough to persuade Supers..

1) It's not just that she is a bitch. Because we all know that she is a cold hearted CALCULATING bitch. And this strategy can't work because . . .

2) The Supers are not just people thinking "hhmmm. . . what can we do to get the presidency this year? Maybe the bitch has a point" They are thinking about the consequences of ACTUALLY disenfranchising 1) the tremendous surge of young, politically active folks into the party 2) blacks who are voting in record numbers and 3) the educated and wealthy.

Not only would it be suicide for the longterm interests of the Party, would it would be political suicide for the individual supers to screw Obama. Even someone like John Lewis felt political pressure to w/d from Clinton and endorse Obama. He's run unopposed in my district forever. And I was touched when he switched and spoke eloquently "“In recent days, there is a sense of movement and a sense of spirit,” said Mr. Lewis, a Georgia Democrat who endorsed Mrs. Clinton last fall. “Something is happening in America, and people are prepared and ready to make that great leap.” Turns out, someone had announced that they were running against him and was going to hammer Lewis on his endorsement of Clinton in a district that was overwhelmingly for Lewis. (His district is totally to Obama's demographics; blacks, wealthy educated whites and students.)

She can NOT win the supers at this point, and certainly NOT by engaging this kind of divisive, attempt at a self fulfilling prophecy scorched earth end game.

There is no other rationality than setting herself up for 12.

This is brutal, but hilarious.

From Inside Clinton HQ:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6Lstkiexhc

Obama grabs superdelegate lead
By MIKE ALLEN & AVI ZENILMAN | 5/9/08 5:51 PM EST Text Size:



Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) on Friday afternoon seized the superdelegate lead from Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), giving him command of every aspect of his party’s presidential nomination race.

That constitutes a key milestone in the race and a shocking reversal of fortune for Clinton.

Obama once was behind by more than 100 superdelegates. But according to at least two counts, more superdelegates are now in his camp. Politico’s tally now shows him ahead of her by 270 superdelegates to 268.5, with 208.5 uncommitted. (Superdelegates from U.S. territories count as one-half.) ABC News shows him ahead by two.

Clinton’s longtime connections to the Democratic machinery had given her a longtime lead among the superdelegates, the party officials who have a vote in the nomination and apparently will prove decisive in this race.

Other news organizations have similar counts, with CBS News placing him behind by one and the Associated Press saying he is behind by one-half. NBC News estimates that Clinton is clinging to a slim lead of five superdelegates.

With Rep Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.) now calling him “the presumptive nominee,” Obama gained nine superdelegates on Friday.

Clinton gained one and lost one.

The people have spoken! Obama in 08!