Fantasy football players to watch, and to avoid, in Week 14
JOHN McFARLAND
Associated Press
The all-important fantasy football playoffs are getting underway in many leagues, meaning NFL and television executives can bank on at least somebody watching the stinker games on national TV this week.
Throw out the fantasy geeks, and who else is going to tune in for Sunday night's Green Bay-Detroit scrap in the NFC North cellar or the Falcons' Monday night flogging of the Saints?
To fantasy players, these aren't just wretched football exhibitions. They're crucial opportunities for Brett Favre and Donald Driver to pick apart the uninterested Lions. Or for Atlanta's Warrick Dunn to zip through the weary Saints.
Even outside of prime time, there are plenty of reasons for the league and TV networks to feel smart about their endless promotion of fantasy football.
Only a few games feature matchups of contenders. And the biggest dud games have fantasy implications even though the traditional coin toss call of "heads or tails" may as well be "Bush or Leinart." Oakland (4-8) is at the Jets (2-10), and Houston (1-11) visits Tennessee (3-9).
As you prepare for some horrid sports viewing, here's a look at some players to watch in Week 14, some to avoid and a few long shots who just may pan out:
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QUARTERBACKS
A SAFE BET
_ Was that dink-and-dunk master Brad Johnson launching an 80-yard touchdown pass for the Vikings last week? Things should really open up against the Rams, who have the versatility to be crummy against the run and the pass.
_ San Diego's Drew Brees should find some big holes in a Miami defense that allowed three touchdowns to Buffalo's J.P. Losman in one quarter. (Yes, that's the same Losman who had three TDs in his previous 25 quarters.)
_ Kansas City's Trent Green should be able to pass on a Dallas defense stacked against the run. Green has six TDs in his last three games, and one more was called back by penalty last week.
_ Favre is starting to look like the cartoon character who gets hit by an anvil, a safe and a piano. But even a beat-up 36-year-old can torch a Lions secondary whose best player has a cast rendering him one-handed.
_ Tennessee's Steve McNair always performs against the fellow NFL dregs. He had three touchdowns against the 49ers a couple of weeks ago, and in October he threw for two TDs and ran for a score against the Texans.
TAKE A SHOT
_ Oakland's Marques Tuiasosopo gets his first start of the year after replacing the ineffective Kerry Collins. He has plenty of weapons against a Jets defense that's probably worse than the Raiders scout team.
BACK AWAY SLOWLY AND NOBODY GETS HURT
Please, in the name of Billy Joe Hobert, don't start these guys:
_ For those of you keeping track of late-season collapses by Dallas' Drew Bledsoe, he has three TDs, four interceptions, six sacks and three fumbles in his last three games. Last week he had a passer rating of 36.9. And he's throwing bounce passes again.
_ Last week's genius free-agent addition of David Garrard isn't looking so swift now that he's leading the Jaguars against the unbeaten Colts' brutal defense.
_ Speaking of genius, the Rams' Ryan Fitzpatrick should offer us a reminder of why Ivy League football isn't very fun to watch.
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RUNNING BACKS
ALL DAY LONG
_ Houston's Domanick Davis has been on a roll in three games back from injury, averaging 133 yards of offense and scoring twice. He'll try to keep it up so the Texans use the top draft pick next year on USC quarterback Matt Leinart instead of running back Reggie Bush.
_ Lost in the high-flying Bengals highlights is the power running of Rudi Johnson. He's scored two TDs in each of his last three games, and he went for 126 yards and a score against the Browns in the season opener.
_ Speaking of the Browns, Reuben Droughns had less than 3 yards a carry last week while practically carrying a sign that says "I'm about to run with the ball." The Browns will be less predictable and he should pile up yards against a bad Bengals run defense.
_ It's safe to say the Giants' Tiki Barber will rush for 100 yards against Philadelphia. He's gone over 100 in his last three games, and in his last four against the Eagles. (And that was back before Philadelphia gave up.)
_ Green Bay's Samkon Gado should cut through the Lions with all the elusiveness of that fan in Detroit who skirted security while displaying a "Fire Millen" sign.
HE COULD FIND A SEAM
_ The Eagles are fresh out of playmakers now that Brian Westbrook is gone for the season. Or are they? Rookie Ryan Moats will get plenty of chances to prove himself, especially with the Eagles sticking with interception factory Mike McMahon.
RED FLAGS
_ So this 2,000-yard running back tears up his knee then goes to prison. There's probably a distasteful joke about Baltimore's Jamal Lewis in there somewhere, and if so the punch line is surely his 17-yard game against the soft-as-butter Texans. Don't just bench him. Cut him.
_ There was a Corey Dillon sighting in New England last week, but unless you're desperate don't count on him until he shows up a few weeks in a row.
_ Keep Dallas' Julius Jones on the bench until the Cowboys figure out how to block.
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WIDE RECEIVERS
THROW HIM THE DARN BALL!
_ Oakland's Randy Moss proved in Minnesota that he can pile up the big numbers when it doesn't matter. He's gone without a TD for three weeks and without a 100-yard game for eight, but he faces a shabby Jets defense and should serve as Tuiasosopo's security blanket.
_ This week's overthinker alert: Don't bench Pittsburgh's Hines Ward against the Bears' No. 1 defense. He has three touchdowns in the last two weeks, and he somehow always produces in a run-first offense against tough defenses.
_ Start Vikings named Robinson. Marcus had three touchdowns two weeks ago. Koren had 148 yards and a score last week. Both could go for 100 yards and/or a score against the Rams' lousy pass defense.
_ Miami's Chris Chambers has been OK this season, but where did that 238-yard game come from? You just can't bench him after that, even with Sage Rosenfels or Gus Frerotte at QB.
_ Houston's Andre Johnson could find the end zone for the second time this season against the shaky Titans, who've allowed a league-high 25 passing TDs. Johnson had 159 yards and a TD two weeks ago against the Rams, who have given up the second-most passing scores.
MAYBE THROW HIM THE DARN BALL?
Did Buffalo's Lee Evans have the flukiest fantasy game in history last week, or was his three-TD first quarter a sign of things to come? I'm guessing the former, but why not roll the dice?
SHOW HIM THE DARN BENCH
_ Where did Dallas' Keyshawn Johnson go? He has one touchdown and hasn't cracked the 60-yard mark in his past four games.
_ If you're wisely getting rid of your old, unused Ravens while fixing up your playoff roster, may as well throw out Derrick Mason. He has two TDs this year, and is 14 games removed from his last 100-yard game.
_ It appears Tennessee's Drew Bennett will never, ever score again.
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TIGHT ENDS TO WATCH NOT NAMED GATES: Jermaine Wiggins (Vikings), Alge Crumpler (Falcons), Dallas Clark (Colts), Todd Heap (Ravens).
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DEFENSES TO WATCH: Seahawks, Bears, Steelers, Falcons, Vikings.
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KICKERS TO WATCH: Nobody really wants to watch kickers, but here are some anyhow: Sebastian Janikowski (Raiders), Ryan Longwell (Packers), Rob Bironas (Titans), Jason Elam (Broncos), Shayne Graham (Bengals).
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WHAT DO I KNOW?
Here's the best and worst of last week's projections:
Big Hits: I predicted big days for Rudi Johnson (98 yards, 2 TDs) and Arizona's Anquan Boldin (156 yards, TD), and I thought Carolina's DeShaun Foster (180 total yards, 2 TDs) and David Garrard (2 TDs) were worth starting. I also expected pain and suffering for Oakland's Kerry Collins (TD, trip to the bench).
Big Misses: I expected Jamal Lewis to perform like a good running back against a bad defense. For some reason I also expected nice stats for Atlanta's Michael Vick (no TDs, 2 INTs), Philadelphia's Brian Westbrook (17 yards, season-ending injury) and Pittsburgh's Willie Parker (71 yards, 2 fumbles).