For playoffs, keep the faith, but be smart, too

Preparing for the playoffs. Keep the faith, but be smart, too.

Date published: 12/14/2005

THE artificial turf isn't always greener in the Metrodome.

That's a lesson I learned this week and one for you to keep in mind as you try to push your team deep into the fantasy football playoffs.

In one league I'm in, the playoffs started this past weekend. I picked up Minnesota quarterback Brad Johnson and started him because I liked his matchup with the Rams better than those faced by my other QBs: Carolina's Jake Delhomme (vs. Bucs) and Kurt Warner (vs. Redskins).

It was a near-fatal mistake for my top-seeded crew, as Johnson threw for a measly 146 yards and no TDs. I ended up needing a 94-yard performance from Falcon TE Alge Crumpler Monday night to eke out a win.

Had I stuck with Delhomme and Warner, I would have locked things up Sunday night.

The old saw, "Dance with the one that brung you," is a good one for fantasy owners to keep in mind as they set their playoff lineups. Don't lose faith in the players who got you there in the first place.

That said, too much blind faith could earn you an early exit. In a one-and-done format, there's no margin for error.

So some lineup shuffling may be in order, just as it is every week. Here are some tips that could help you turn the playoffs into a payoff.

Avoid health risks: Keep a close eye on NFL injury reports. Starting a questionable LaDainian Tomlinson is one thing, but a questionable Fred Taylor or Jamal Lewis should be dispatched to the bench. Taking a zero at any position is not acceptable.

Get real: Monitor the NFL's playoff picture. The Colts are likely to keep their starters in as long as they're undefeated, but the Bengals and Seahawks may start resting their starters, especially in Weeks 16 and 17. If Marvin Lewis is putting Carson Palmer on the bench, you should, too. If you have stars for playoff qualifiers, dump your marginal bench players to make room for their backups. Backups to consider include Bengals QB Jon Kitna and RBs Maurice Morris of Seattle and Dominic Rhodes of the Colts.

Weather the storm: Check the forecasts for NFL games. You don't want to start a quarterback or a kicker playing in a blizzard in Buffalo, but you might want one of the defenses playing there that day.

Diversify your portfolio: An overdependence on stars from one team can sink your squad in the playoffs if they're going against a decent defense. Carolina's Delhomme, DeShaun Foster and Steve Smith are a nice trifecta this week against the Saints. But you don't want Atlanta's Michael Vick, Warrick Dunn and Crumpler taking up three lineup slots with them facing the Bears Sunday night.

Know your enemy: The best way to survive going against a stud quarterback is to poach some of his points. For example, if your opponent has Seattle's Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks WR Bobby Engram is a smarter play than the Giants' Plaxico Burress.

Play rough: Do whatever it takes to win, as long as it falls within the rules. If your opponent has the injured Curtis Martin of the Jets but you have a higher waiver pick, use it to take his replacement, Cedric Houston. Even if you don't start Houston, you won't have to worry about him contributing to your defeat.
Pick-Six Postmortem

Thank you, Eli Manning. Your performance against the Eagles is the only thing that saved me from an embarrassing shutout at the hands of Evil Genius Joe Beane this week. In a head-to-head fantasy showdown, you waxed Brad Johnson, whose dreadful performance we've already discussed.

But Beane had better picks at every other position: RB Samkon Gado over Lamont Jordan, WR Joe Jurevicius over Koren Robinson, TE Alge Crumpler over Randy McMichael, K Rob Bironas over Jeff Reed and the Broncos defense over the Giants.

Fairness and what's left of my pride requires me to note that my opponent, the fantasy number-cruncher, got to pick first last week. But the truth is, my gut was leaning only toward Johnson and Gado from his list, so that's a wash.

I'm picking first this week and digging deep to mount a comeback. Check out our selections of unlikely heroes above.