NFC Preview, and I won't name He Who Must Not Be Named
By Gregg Easterbrook
Special to NFL.com
(Aug. 23, 2005) -- The preseason death of 23-year-old San Francisco lineman Thomas Herrion is heartbreaking; you can write a condolence on the team's page. The initial autopsy was inconclusive; heat stroke and an undiagnosed heart defect are two problems that can cause an outwardly healthy person to collapse after hard exertion. Beyond grieving for Herrion, we must ask -- is his loss, or any football-related death, an indictment of the sport?
This new report from the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research at the University of North Carolina finds that in 2004 at the youth league, high school, college and pro levels, five football players died from injuries suffered on the field, while 10 more died from heat stroke, heart failure or because they had been hit by lightning. These 15 deaths are terrible, though they reflect a steady decline in the rate of football fatalities, which mainly happens to high school boys.
Past death rates for the 1960s and '70s were higher than today's, though far more people now play football owing to population growth and the explosion of organized sports. In 1968, for example, 36 people, mostly high school boys, died football-related deaths, the University of North Carolina has found. The number of football deaths has been falling for several reasons. One is that severe injuries to the neck and spine have dropped in the last generation owing to rule changes ("leading with the head" has been illegal since 1976) and improved equipment. Awareness of proper hydration is another factor. As recently as the '60s, many coaches forbid football players from drinking water during practice to "make them tough." Now coaches are acutely aware of hydration, especially during August. Still, there have been three football heat-stroke deaths, all at the high school level, in the last three years. That's three too many. It should be possible to eliminate heat-stroke death in any supervised sports environment.
Another reason for the decline of football death is stricter lightning rules. Today most school systems suspend games at the first sight of lightning and do not allow play to resume until 30 minutes after the last thunderclap is heard. Last fall, yours truly was scouting a high school game in Montgomery County, Md., when lightning was seen. The teams left the field and waited 30 minutes after the final sound of thunder, for a total delay of almost an hour. As the ball was put back into play, a distant, barely audible rumble was heard. "Everybody off the field right now," the referee ordered, imposing another half-hour wait. The spectators groaned, but it was exactly the right thing to do.
However, rates of football death from what physicians call "natural causes provoked by vigorous exercise" have not been declining because standard American pediatric practice does not include tests for the congenital heart defects that cause such deaths. This recent Wall Street Journal story concerns the jogging death of a 16-year-old boy who had a heart ventricle defect that might have been treated, but went undetected because he never received the fairly simple, inexpensive EKG screening that reveals most congenital heart problems. Any parent reading this story will want to weep. Undetected congenital heart flaws are considered the leading cause of football-related deaths, as well as of all sports-related deaths. Many European medical societies now mandate EKG screening for youths in sports. Why isn't this the norm here?
Still, we are left with the question of whether Herrion's death, or any football-related death, represents an indictment of the sport. This Washington Post story summarizes medical research on the relative risks of childhood activities, including sports participation. Football, as might be guessed, was found the riskiest sport for children and teens as regards minor injuries -- a football player was twice as likely to sustain a minor injury as a basketball player, and five times as likely to sustain a minor injury as a skateboarder. But for "level IV injuries," the kinds that require hospitalization, football was only somewhat more risky than other sports. The surprise in the data is that football is not the most dangerous sport when it comes to permanent disabling injuries. Basketball and baseball, the data show, both cause more permanent disabling injuries, compared to the number of participants. Soccer, which many suburban parents now extol as a "harmless" alternative to football, causes permanent disabling injuries at almost exactly the same rate as football.
Now we get to the hard part to consider, death itself. According to the Statistical Abstract of the United States, in 2002, the most recent year for which statistics are available, among males aged 15 to 24 -- the primary football-playing social cohort -- there was one death for every 852 people. ( Go here, then scan to table 96.) This study estimates that around 1.5 million people play organized football in the United States, considering youth leagues and the nation's approximately 21,500 high schools and 3,000 or so colleges and universities. Combine the death rate for ages 15 to 24 and the total number of people participating in football, and you would expect about 1,750 football participants to die in the course of a year. Most die from the leading cause of death for that age -- traffic accidents. But the sad truth is that some within that group have medical problems, such as undiagnosed heart defects that will cause them to die whether they play football or not. You only hear about it if the death occurs in connection with a football game. If 1,750 people in the football-playing group are expected to die in a year, and 15 of them die in connection with a game or practice, that is tragic, but statistically not shocking -- considering what a time-consuming pursuit football is. My guess is that a time-and-risk study would show that you are safer in pads on a football field than you are in the car driving to the field. This does not diminish tragedy; only places tragedy into perspective.
It's hard to switch from this to my usual column. Now, my NFC Preview.
Arizona: It's 1 o'clock Sunday afternoon, do you know who the Arizona quarterback is? Last season, his first in the desert, Dennis Green vacillated among three starters -- Josh McCown, Shaun King and John Navarre. This year, Kurt Warner is expected behind center on opening day, making it four different starting quarterbacks in a span of about a dozen games. That's turmoil, to put things mildly. Despite Arizona's shaky quarterback situation, in his first two drafts, Green has taken first-round passes on Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, J.P. Losman and Aaron Rodgers -- at least a couple of whom are likely to be long-term NFL starters. There was quarterback chaos under Green in Minnesota too, with Daunte Culpepper, Randall Cunningham, Rich Gannon, Jeff George, Brad Johnson, Jim McMahon, Warren Moon and Sean Salisbury taking turns under Green's tenure. It's almost as if when Green finally found Culpepper, the sort of steady star who can be a long-term presence, the coach figured the time had come to leave town and seek some other team with quarterback instability.
Judging by the question marks in so many aspects of the Arizona roster -- unsettled offensive line, rookie corners, a cast of unknowns at tight end -- it's hard not to predict another long season for this club. But then it's always hard not to predict a long season for the Cards, who have just one playoff victory in the last 58 years. Jason Schlueter of Portola Hills, Calif., was among many readers to point out this report in the prestigious science journal Nature. Two British researchers concluded that "across a range of sports, wearing red is consistently associated with a higher probability of winning." As Mike Florio has quipped, they obviously did not include the Arizona Cardinals in the study!
Fun fact: Cards punter Scott Player is the sole NFL gent still wearing the single-bar facemask. Several years ago, the league mandated a minimum of two bars, but inserted a grandfather clause. Every kicker who wore a one-bar helmet has since retired, except for Player. Whenever he quits or asks the trainer for a two-bar, the 1950s helmet look will be gone for good. Ah, for the days of no facemasks at all!
Atlanta: My favorite trivia question of the 2004 season: Which team led the NFL in rushing? Rare is the football aficionado who would correctly answer Atlanta. The Falcons even accomplished this feat without a player in the top 10 for rushing yards. Obviously Michael-Mike Vick's 902 yards on the ground helped, but equally important, defenders' fear of losing track of Vick opened things up for the Atlanta tailbacks. That's the good news. The bad news is that the Atlanta passing attack remained low voltage, finishing 30th, ahead only of pass-allergic Baltimore and Chicago. Electrifying as Vick is, it seems fair to ask what Michael-Mike was doing in the Pro Bowl when his team was terrible at the forward pass and when he was only 21st in passer rating, trailing Tim Rattay and Billy Volek.
Are Atlanta's passing problems caused by Vick or by the team's receivers? Detroit got a lot of ink this April for using a third consecutive first-round draft choice on a wide receiver, but in effect the Falcons have done the same by drafting wideouts No. 1 in 2004 and '05 after trading their 2003 No. 1 for Peerless Price. In two seasons with Atlanta, Price's stats have only equaled what he did in the previous season at Buffalo -- six touchdowns and 1,410 yards in Atlanta versus nine touchdowns and 1,252 yards the previous year. Maybe Price is one of those guys who signs a mammoth contract and then celebrates by taking the rest of his career off, but there's no getting around the fact that the ball has just not arrived at his hands that much. Considering the wide-receiver acquisitions and the Vick trade, Atlanta has spent its No. 1 picks of 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005 on the quarterback-wideout battery. Yet the Falcons barely avoided finishing at the bottom in passing, and netted a measly 103 yards passing in their NFC title game loss. Somebody must be to blame for this, and the more Atlanta tape I watch, the more I think that somebody is Vick.
Michael-Mike seems indecisive in the pocket, then often simply misses the man he throws to. His footwork seems all wrong. Steve Young once said you can tell whether a quarterback is having a good game simply by looking at his feet. Good quarterbacks move their feet efficiently and decisively. Vick, by contrast, often seems to be trying to invent MTV dance steps during plays. Among other things, yours truly wonders if the West Coast approach is the best match for Vick's ability. In a West Coast offense (maybe that should be West Coast Offense™), receivers mostly run short routes. That means the receivers are dashing back and forth congested together, while defenders can stay up near the line to stop Vick's scrambles. Maybe it would be better if the Falcons used vertical patterns and sent receivers down the field, drawing defenders away from Vick. Deep patterns take longer to develop, and thus require good blocking. But deep receivers can be easier for a quarterback to spot than a bunch of guys running back and forth near the line, and Vick does seem to have trouble determining who's open.
Two ominous portents for Falcons fans. First, though their favorites made the conference title game, Atlanta played the weakest regular-season schedule last year, with its opponents finishing with a collective 111-145 mmark. Second, the Atlanta franchise has never posted back-to-back winning seasons.
Carolina: The Panthers are a team of streaks. In 2001, Carolina lost 15 straight. In 2002, the team won three, then lost eight, then won four of five. The next season was Carolina's Super Bowl year, and the Panthers had five-game and six-game winning streaks. In 2004, the Cats lost seven of eight, then won six of eight. These are the kind of hidden indicators that are essential to an insider’s understanding of the game. Unfortunately, Tuesday Morning Quarterback has no idea what they mean.
The Panthers are also a team of turmoil: crimes by players, a steroids scandal, injuries, the death of beloved assistant coach Sam Mills. Name a problem and Carolina has been through it -- really. It seems only a matter of time until a plague of frogs descends on the Panthers. (Of the 10 plagues God sent against Egypt in Exodus, the second was frogs. Somehow I'm guessing this was not as funny as it sounds.) At least the Panthers play far enough inland that tsunamis cannot strike. Possible trouble waiting to happen: injury to quarterback Jake Delhomme. His backup, Chris Weinke, has not started a game since 2002 and has twice as many career interceptions (22) as touchdown passes (11).
Many people are predicting a big year for Carolina, but TMQ is less sanguine. Last season, the Panthers finished 1-7 against teams that made the playoffs. Carolina's second-half win streak was padded by two shots at Tampa plus games against San Francisco and Arizona -- these clubs finished a combined 13-35. After Halloween, the Panthers faced only one team that completed the season with a winning record. Mike Wahle, an excellent player, arrived via free agency, but Muhsin Muhammad departed and he had posted a great season in 2004, especially considering there was no other top wide receiver to take the pressure off him. Carolina strikes yours truly as having significant weaknesses, so I am adopting a wait-and-see policy. I will wait and see if the Panthers do well. If they do, I will claim to have predicted it.
Chicago: Despite seven touchdowns and three safeties generated by defense and special teams, the Bears were the lowest-scoring team in the NFL in 2004. If your defense and special teams are high scoring, yet your team overall is the lowest scoring, you have, technically speaking, a landlocked offense. Last year, the Chicago Mingdingxiong ("bears whose outcomes are decided by fate" in Mandarin) couldn't run, catch, block or throw, and the play calling was pretty bland too. With Rex Grossman injured early, Chicago struggled through the league's worst quarterbacking. The Bears completed only nine touchdown passes, which Benny Friedman would have considered a bad year back when the ball was shaped like a watermelon and passing was detested by coaches because any incompletion was a penalty. (Chicago quarterbacking is so consistently bad, Chicago Tribune sportswriter Don Pierson noted at this year's Hall of Fame banquet, that the 20 touchdown passes Friedman threw in 1929 using a watermelon-shaped ball would have led in the Bears in 38 of the last 39 years.) But while rarely advancing the ball using the forward pass, Chicago did march backward with some regularity, surrendering 449 sack yards, worst in the league.
During the offseason, every NFL beat writer pointed out how strange it was that the Bears did not acquire a quality veteran quarterback to back up the injury-prone Grossman. Grossman got hurt, again, in a preseason game, and at that point, all the desirable veteran quarterbacks were employed. The Mingdingxiong could only find Jeff Blake, who joins his fifth team in five years. Anybody might get cut once or even twice -- when you're let go four times in four years, there may be a message encoded in that data. For 2005, the Bears formally switch to the pass-wacky West Coast Offense™. Let's hope George Halas' ghost does not hear that the Monsters of the Midway will pass first and ask questions later. The whole logic of the plan escapes your columnist. The Bears were dreadful trying to pass the football in 2004 and now are switching to an offense based on constant passing. The only upside is there's an opening for brainy rookie quarterback Kyle Orton -- who went from college golden boy last September to benched in November -- to recover his previous status.
Not only will Chicago open with huge problems at quarterback, but the tailback position is also fouled up. The Bears spent the fourth pick of the draft on Cedric Benson of Texas. If he starts studying yoga and living in a yurt, Bears fans may feel free to panic. Benson still isn't in camp, staging the longest holdout of any first-round draft pick. Here is a list of other recent high first-round Chicago selections who staged holdouts -- Curtis Enis, Cade McNown, Rashaan Salaam and David Terrell. It is not exactly heartening that Benson's opening move was to do the one thing all recent Chicago first-round busts have in common. As for the Bears defense, it has become common to hear linebacker Brian Urlacher described as overrated. Last season, Chicago was 0-7 when Urlacher was out injured and 5-4 when he played.
Dallas: The 'Boys place their fortunes in the hands of Drew Bledsoe. Last fall, this space described Bledsoe's career as "over," and I am standing by that assessment. For the past two seasons, only Bledsoe's name, certainly not his performance, has kept him on the field. His accuracy is a thing of the past. Watch old Buffalo tape and behold numerous instances of the ball striking the synthetic grass-like substance at receivers' feet or sailing over receivers' heads. For the past two seasons, Bledsoe has looked exclusively at the receiver he intends to throw to, and safeties have figured this out, let me assure you. In 2004, the Bills played four of what TMQ calls "authentic" games -- high-pressure contests against quality opponents. Two tilts with New England, one game at Baltimore and the season-finale home date against Pittsburgh in which the Steelers rested starters and a victory would have put Buffalo into the playoffs. The Bills lost all four authentic contests, and Bledsoe was just utterly awful in every one. In those games, Bledsoe threw a mere one touchdown pass while committing 11 turnovers on interceptions and lost fumbles, with three of the turnovers returned for touchdowns. That is, when the pressure was on, Bledsoe produced more touchdowns for his opponents than he did for his own offense. TMQ will be surprised if Bledsoe is the Dallas starter past United Nations Day, and the hook may come sooner -- though even if Bledsoe plays only a while, he stands a chance of moving ahead of Johnny Unitas and Joe Montana on the all-time passing yardage list.
Now consider the overall transaction ledger for the big 2004 trade between Dallas and Buffalo and the Bills' decision, based on obtaining quarterback J.P. Losman in that trade, to waive Bledsoe. In effect, the bottom line is that Buffalo got Losman (using the draft pick obtained from Dallas) while the Cowboys got Marcus Spears, Julius Jones, backup tight end Sean Ryan and Bledsoe (using the choices obtained from the Bills, plus signing Bledsoe after he became expendable in Buffalo). If Losman is a bust, Dallas will be seen as the huge winner in this deal. If Losman becomes a star, Dallas will be the huge loser. Conventional wisdom assumes that had the 'Boys kept their 2004 first-round pick, they would have taken running back Steven Jackson. Why assume that? Given Dallas' desperate need for a young quarterback, Tuesday Morning Quarterback assumes that had the 'Boys kept their 2004 first pick, they would have selected Losman. Either way, Dallas remains desperate for a young quarterback. Last year, the Cowboys' most apparent problem on the field was that their pass defense dropped from first in 2003 to 20th. But the team's core dilemma remains lack of quality at quarterback, where the deflating Bledsoe is backed up by Drew Henson (18 career pass attempts) and Tony Romo (no career pass attempts). Should Losman become a star, 'Boys faithful will be tormented by the fact that they might have snagged him.
Detroit: Sportscasters follow the career of Detroit general manager Matt Millen closely because he jumped from sitting in a broadcast booth to running the show as head of the Lions' front office. Every sportscaster huffs about those idiots running the teams and how he or she could show 'em a thing or two if in charge. Has Millen shown 'em a thing or two? Since he was named the Lion tamer four years ago, Detroit is 16-48, the worst record in the NFL in that period. And Millen inherited a Lions squad that came within an eyelash of the playoffs, knocked out only by an improbable 54-yard field goal on the final play of the final regular-season game that year. So it's not like Millen took over a bad team. He took over a 9-7 team and fashioned it into a bad team. Maybe it's just as well that the broadcasters stay in the booth.
Do the Lions have any hope of a better outcome this season? A lot must change. Last season, both offense and defense for Detroit finished in the league's bottom third. On draft day, the Lions got a lot of attention for using a high No. 1 pick on a wide receiver for the third consecutive year. But the first of the three, Charles Rogers, has only appeared in six games in his two seasons in the NFL; players who suffer injuries in consecutive years rarely bounce back. Much of what happens may depend on Joey Harrington, who has not lived up to his exalted draft status. But on the other hand, he has improved in each of the last two years. (His passer rating rose from 60 in his rookie season, to 64 in his sophomore year, to 78 last season.) Harrington has to play well early or the Detroit fans will give up on him and he'll lose his confidence. And when once-touted quarterbacks lose their confidence, this can be an unpleasant sight.
Detroit believers still reminisce about the 1957 season when John Henry Johnson and Lou Creekmur were on the field, and the Lions won the old NFL championship. Yes, that was some season to remember. But in the 48 years since then, Detroit has exactly one playoff victory. Ay caramba!
Green Bay: In 2003, the Green Bay "D" performed pretty well, finishing 11th in scoring defense. Then, in the playoffs, came the "Play That Must Not Be Named" -- Philadelphia's fourth-and-26 conversion that cost the Packers an NFC title game appearance. Defensive coordinator Ed Donatell was fired as punishment, though TMQ does not recall seeing Donatell on the field during this blown play. With Donatell cashiered, the Packers slipped to 23rd in scoring defense in 2004, then gave up 31 points at Lambeau Field in an opening-round playoff collapse. Brett Favre actually had a terrific year in 2004 -- about the same statistically as when he was MVP in 1997, compare here -- but the Packers defense was so waterlogged that the team's offensive output did not matter. Meanwhile, Donatell decamped to Atlanta, where the defense improved from 30th in 2003 to 14th in 2004. The football gods grind slow, but they grind exceeding small.
Now Jim Bates is the Pack's defensive honcho. For years at Miami, Bates ran one of the league's most effective units. Bates coaches the kind of defense Tuesday Morning Quarterback admires and advocates -- conservative, position-oriented schemes with little blitzing. In a Bates defense, the ends are usually quite wide to stop sweeps, the corners usually cover man to man, and having the linebackers in the right place at the right time is the key to everything. Can the Bates system work in Green Bay? The system only works if defenders are disciplined, and Packers defensive backs are not known for discipline. Now that Mike "Coach Cratchit" Sherman has surrendered his general manager duties, Green Bay will offer a test of the TMQ maxim that coaches should not double as front-office managers. If TMQ's theory is right, Packer fortunes will improve with Coach Cratchit confining himself to coaching.
Lambeau note 1: Green Bay has lost two of its last three playoff games at Lambeau Field, which is like saying Anna Kournikova has been turned down by two of the last three men she asked out.
Lambeau note 2: This month, the Packers sold out a scrimmage at Lambeau with 66,000 people filing in to watch a scrimmage. Citizens of Wisconsin, you have your priorities in order!
Lambeau note 3: Sherman has become Coach Cratchit to this column owing to the Dickensian fingerless gloves he wore on the sidelines at Lambeau in January. Put another scuttle of coal on the fire, Coach Cratchit, and you do that before you draw up another X or O!
A Test Cover Promising "Mild Sex!" Just Didn't Sell
Cosmopolitan magazine recently ran the cover headline, HOT NEW SEX TRICKS! But people don't want "tricks" when it comes to sex; they want the genuine article. And can there seriously be anything that's "new" in sex? Hmmmm, now I will worry there is something new and I don’t know what it is.
Jersey/A: During the offseason, Giants quarterbacks coach Kevin Gilbride said of Eli Manning: "He is never gonna stand up and be Jim Kelly." Coach, thanks for the vote of confidence! Weirdly, Gilbride went on to say he meant this as a compliment, explaining Manning could not become a dynamic leader in the Kelly mold, but that "little by little within the parameters of his personality you see him beginning to assert himself." Manning must have thought: Coach, in the future, please don't compliment me. Another way in which Manning will not be like Kelly is handing off. During the Bills' Golden Era, when he was the last NFL quarterback to call his own plays, Kelly consistently called more rushes than passes, even from the no-huddle. Last season, the Giants, under the pass-wacky Gilbride, called more passes than runs, and this season is unlikely to see a different emphasis.
Giants fans will be screaming for Manning to heave-ho to big-money free agent Plaxico Burress. But bear in mind, the gentleman has not caught for 1,000 yards in two years. Burress' running mate, Amani Toomer, was held without a touchdown reception last season. These are not auspicious signs when your plan is to be pass-wacky. Tuesday Morning Quarterback believes Jersey/B's fortunes will not change for the better until the team tarts up its bland gray-themed uniform. The uniforms make the Giants look slow. As aircraft designers say of planes: "Looks good, flies good." TMQ says of uniforms: "Looks slow, plays slow."
Potter Nicknames Return to Column
The Terrell Owens imbroglio has caused many to weigh in on why wide receivers act like divas, a subject yours truly first saw broached by Bryan Curtis of Slate in 2002. Practically every sportswriter has lately penned a column on this phenomenon. Even Max Boot, a senior fellow in national security studies at the lofty Council on Foreign Relations, wrote a piece on wide receiver ego for the Wall Street Journal. A fellow of the Council on Foreign Relations opining about football? Hey, I thought I had this Brookings brainiac/football moonlighting field entirely to myself! Next thing you know, Henry Kissinger will show up on SportsCenter. ("Vellll, Trey, der Vest Coast offense is veddy, veddy complex …") Speaking of No. 81 of the Eagles, TMQ has tired of his act and of the attention paid to his act. Of course as the Go-Gos observed, you can't stop the world. But you can stop yourself. So for the rest of the season, I will cease mentioning this gentleman, which only encourages him. To TMQ, No. 81 of the Eagles will become "He Who Must Not Be Named."
Minnesota: What are 31, 31 and 28? Points scored by Minnesota in losses in 2004. Repeatedly the Vikings put up lots of points, yet jogged through the tunnel defeated. Minnesota's pass defense was ranked 29th. This year, the Vikings will field the league's most expensive defensive backfield, with recent megabucks free agents Darren Sharper, Fred Smoot and Antoine Winfield; almost $25 million in bonuses have recently been accorded these gentlemen. Can they do better than 29th? The Vikings will also field an impressive seven first-round and four second-round players on defense. Will this all serve to prove that where you're drafted means nothing once the guy in the white cap blows his whistle? During the Randy Moss era, TMQ wondered whether Minnesota defenders were poor players or were hampered by the Moss psychology. Randy got all the attention; Randy got away with whatever he wanted; it was Randy this, Randy that; Minnesota coaches rarely seemed to care much about what the defense was up to. Well, Moss is gone and the hope for victory lies in a balanced, team-oriented approach. Now the Vikes defense has no excuse. It's shut somebody down or shut up.
NFC North teams finished 15th (Chicago), 20th (Detroit), 25th (Green Bay) and 29th (Minnesota) versus the pass in 2004, making this the league's easiest division to throw against. These figures are even more underwhelming considering Green Bay and Minnesota got four total games against Chicago and Detroit, two of the league's worst passing offenses. Apparently, it's not hard to pass in cold weather after all. In the NFC North, at least, what's hard is to stop the pass in cold weather.
And Crank Up the Air Conditioner As You Drive Around Trying to Save on Gasoline
With fuel prices rising, last week the American Automobile Association advised motorists to "shop with their steering wheel" by driving around and looking for the cheapest gas. This is terrible advice. If the pump price is $3 a gallon, a car that gets 20 MPG consumes 15 cents' worth of gasoline each mile. Motor more than a couple miles looking for the cheapest gas and you've already spent your savings -- considering filling stations know each other's prices and usually post rates only a few cents different from the next guy's. And gasoline is hardly the only expense of operating a vehicle. Cars, pickup trucks and SUVs cost on average about 40 cents per mile to operate, when fuel, maintenance, repairs, insurance and depreciation are taken into account. (The estimate comes from the Internal Revenue Service, which allows a deduction of 40.5 cents per mile for business or charitable use of personal vehicles) So if you drive five miles to "shop with your steering wheel," you've just spent $2 -- and you're not likely to find a station where a fill-up is $2 cheaper.
Philadelphia: "The Eagles' biggest problem was no depth at running back, yet the Eagles acquired no running back help. Philadelphia finished free agency with a near league-high in unspent salary-cap space -- which could have been used for the extra players that might win the Super Bowl, but will instead be, what, donated to charity?" For five straight years TMQ has been running exactly those words as my preseason comment for the Eagles; see last year's here. Okay, the original five years ago mentioned Duce Staley. But the basic point is the same. For five straight years, TMQ has been complaining that the Eagles don't have a power back and that they are among NFL leaders in unspent salary cap. What's the deal this year? Philadelphia looks thin at running back and is near the top in unused salary-cap space. As of July, when the big free-agency decisions for 2005 were done, the Eagles were fourth in unused cap space.
I harp on this because the Eagles were within a touchdown of winning the Super Bowl -- obviously, this team is good -- yet took no offseason steps to correct their only big deficiency -- lack of a running game. Philadelphia was 31st in rushing attempts in 2004, averaging 24 rushes per contest, ahead only of the rushing-doormat Raiders. As reader Spencer Vliet of Northampton, Pa., notes, the Eagles have shown you can score a lot of points and make the Super Bowl without a rushing game. But can you win the Super Bowl without a rushing game? Last year, Philadelphia passed on 59 percent of its downs. Assuming most of the 68 quarterback runs by Philadelphia were scrambles -- that is, called passes -- then Eagles coaches signaled in passes on 64 percent of plays. Small wonder New England felt confident about opening the Super Bowl in an unusual 2-5-4 defense keyed to stop the short pass. In the second half of the Super Bowl, Philadelphia rushed for a net of just 8 yards -- and New England was in a pass defense almost the entire time. Yet in the offseason, the Eagles did not acquire a power back and left millions on the table in cap money that might have been invested in a running game. Yes, it is good management not to tap out your salary cap. But the Eagles' playoff current run is not going to last forever, and is unlikely to end in a Lombardi Trophy if this team continues to be incapable of rushing.
He Who Must Not Be Named note 1: The player in question claims it is a human-rights outrage that he will receive only about $3.5 million in 2005. That's too little, says He. If so, then the gentleman was overpaid in 2004, when He received about $9 million, mostly as bonuses, from the Eagles. NFL players always ask for the maximum up front as bonuses, because bonuses stay in your bank account even if you are later sent packing for salary-cap reasons. Asking for the max up front makes total sense for players. But if you ask for what is in effect a first-year advance against your second-year's pay, don't complain later that your second-year's pay is not as much as your first year's. Average the 2004 and 2005 payments to He Who Must Not Be Named and the number comes to about $6 million annually, which is just about right for his level of performance, as Pat Kirwan argues in detail here by comparing the gentleman's average against the average pay of other top receivers.
He Who Must Not Be Named note 2: Reader Steven Lipstein from Baltimore asks, "Why can teams cut a player at any time, dissolving the contract, but a player who signed a deal and then had a great season cannot ask that his contract be dissolved and replaced with one calling for higher payment?" This is basically the Drew Rosenhaus argument -- that if it's fair for NFL teams to waive a player with years remaining on his contract, then it's fair for a player with years remaining on his contract to renegotiate. But the idea that teams can waive players while players cannot renegotiate is not a double standard, because the contracts specify that players may be cut but may not renegotiate. Every NFL contract contains clauses spelling out that only the club, not the player, may terminate the deal. Basically what an NFL contract says is, "If you play well, here's how much you'll get. If you do not play well or the team has salary-cap problems, you will be waived." All contracts contain compromises, and this is one of the fundamental compromises that NFL players and management have negotiated with each other. This compromise arrangement is great for NFL players: The teams-can-cut-anyone clause inspires maximum effort, which keeps the quality of NFL play very high, which keeps mega money flowing to NFL players. But like all compromises, the one-sided aspect of NFL contracts is imperfect. Sometimes players do end up being paid too little. On the other hand, sometimes players end up being paid too much and rarely complain about that. If players want the contractual right to demand a raise after any season in which they performed better than expected, then clubs should have the contractual right to demand money be returned after any season in which a player performs worse than expected. Take a guess how many members of the NFLPA would vote for that arrangement.
New Orleans: The Saints' frustration can be summed up in the fact that New Orleans has invested four recent No. 1 draft picks in its defensive line -- yet the team finished last in defense in 2004. Nothing coach Jim Haslett has tried has put the Boy Scouts into the league's elite. All those high picks on defense didn't improve the defense. The big commitment to Aaron Brooks has resulted in only average quarterbacking. On the other hand, Haslett's Saints always compete. Special teams are usually good. The Saints beat Atlanta late last season in a pressure game. They ended their season by beating Carolina in a game that meant far more to the 'Cats than the Saints. Over the last four seasons, New Orleans has gone 7-9, 9-7, 8-8 and 8-8. That's 32-32 -- the perfect expression of competitive balance!
In June, ESPN commentator John Clayton wrote of the Saints, "Quarterback Aaron Brooks needs to get back into the 60 percent completion range after a 57 percent season in 2004." If Brooks had connected on 60 percent of his passes in 2004, this would have resulted in 16 more New Orleans completions -- one per game. It's hard to believe one more completion per game would have made a meaningful difference in the Boy Scouts' season. Modern NFL coaches have become fixated on 60 percent completions as the proof of passing efficiency, but Tuesday Morning Quarterback would trade a few of those 8-yard outs for a few long bombs, and accept the extra incompletion or two. Terry Bradshaw was a career 52 percent passer; Bob Griese, a career 56 percent passer; Bart Starr, a career 57 percent passer.
Note: NFC South teams have attended three consecutive NFC Championship Games, with Tampa, then Carolina, then Atlanta representing the division. If this pattern holds, New Orleans goes to the NFC title game this season.
Stat That Must Mean Something
Joseph Parisi of Woodbridge, N.J., points out that Tom Brady and Donovan McNabb, last February's starting Super Bowl quarterbacks, both threw interceptions on their very first 2005 pass attempts.
St. Louis: Once again, Les Mouflons threw the ball like crazy, finishing fifth in passing. But St. Louis recorded only one more touchdown pass (23) than interception (22), while ending the year second in sack yards allowed (362). Meanwhile, the Rams did little on the ground, only attempting 24 rushes per game, third-worst figure in the league. Their wacky go-for-broke attack turned the ball over 39 times; the only teams to turn it over more often were San Francisco, Miami and Cleveland, who picked 1-2-3 in the draft. Constant turnovers by the St. Louis offense nullified a quietly respectable performance by the team's defense. Maybe you can argue that since the Rams finished 8-8 they showed it is possible to win in the NFL despite lots of turnovers and a wacky offense. But it's hard to imagine Les Mouflons returning to their former status as a postseason menace until the offense hands the ball to tailbacks more often and to the opponents less.
What the Martz?!? Mike Martz of St. Louis continues to make strange mid-round draft picks. In 2002, Les Mouflons spent a fourth-round choice on guard Travis Scott, who did not start in college. Scott never played for St. Louis and is now "OOF," Out of Football. In 2003, the Rams spent a third-round choice on Nebraska quarterback Eric Crouch, planning to convert him to wide receiver, though Crouch had said he would refuse to play any position other than quarterback. Crouch refused and walked out on the Rams, then walked out on the Packers. Right now, he'd be lucky to be covering punts for the Edmonton Eskimos. In this year's draft, Les Mouflons spent a third-round pick on center Richie Incognito, who did not play college football in 2004 because he had been suspended by his school, and who was drafted needing surgery that may prevent him from playing in 2005. To top it off, Incognito has refused to report to the Rams -- carrying the name thing a bit far, don't you think? At any rate, in three of the last four drafts, St. Louis took a valuable mid-round pick and threw it out the window. In the salary-cap era, mid-round draft choices are gold, because the gentlemen acquired in the middle rounds are indentured to perform for four years at affordable prices. Throw enough mid-round picks out the window and your team is bound to sputter.
Another reason the Rams sputtered in 2004 is that they were last in special-teams performance, according to the annual special-teams ranking by Rick Gosselin of the Dallas Morning News. This came one season after Martz fired special-teams coach Bobby April, who went to Buffalo, where his special teams were No. 1 ranked last season, according to Gosselin. By the Hammer of Grabthar, Bobby April was avenged!
San Francisco: Terry Dunn of Sacramento, Calif., points out that not only did San Francisco finish 2-14 in 2004, it did so while playing opponents who compiled a net losing record (.488) on the season. Yumpin' yiminy. Now Nolan the Younger takes the reins, charged with reviving this storied franchise, but seems to be repeating a formula that has backfired everywhere it's been tried -- being both a coach and a front-office manager. This didn't work for Mike Holmgren in Seattle; the team floundered until Holmgren gave up his front-office role and concentrated on coaching. It sure didn't work for Butch Davis in Cleveland. It didn't work for Coach Cratchit in Green Bay. The new Niners structure has no general manager. There is a gent with the title "chief of football operations," but he reports to Nolan, engaging the risk he will serve as a yes man. Coaches should coach while a separate department deals with personnel issues. Trying to do both only means you do two things poorly.
Meanwhile, yours truly cannot figure why Jerry Rice was denied a victory lap at Monster Park. Rice is not only the greatest receiver of all time, he may be the greatest football player ever … period. Of course, at his age, Rice is a third receiver -- the job he hopes to land with Denver. He is just one year away from sitting in a broadcast booth, wearing a garish color-coordinated jacket. But why, Tuesday Morning Quarterback wonders, were the Niners so adamant they did not want Rice back for one last bow? Have a look at the Niners' depth chart; this team is not exactly overloaded at the receiver position.
Professional sports are foremost a form of entertainment: The goal is to show the customers a good time and having them buy tickets again. San Francisco fans love Rice and would be far better entertained this season by seeing him snag the occasional pass for old time's sake than seeing Rashaun Woods run 8-yard outs. Television audiences might feel the same way. Houston at San Francisco on New Year's Day, the Squared Sevens' season-finale game, is unlikely to matter in playoff terms; the Niners may have trouble papering the house that holiday afternoon. But if that was Rice's last game as a pro, every seat would be taken, and TV sets would be tuned in as well. San Francisco's management seemed to think that because Rice is no longer a star, he has no value to the team. The Niners squad is composed entirely of players who are not stars!
Licensing note: Candlestick Park, one of the loveliest names in sports, is now Monster Park. If only a cheese company had bought the naming rights and called it Munster Park! Weirdly, there are two big companies named Monster -- and no, I don't know what that says about capitalism. One Monster company makes audio equipment and one Monster company brokers job placement. One is paying the city of San Francisco a hefty sum, the other is getting some free publicity. Do you know which Monster the Niners' field is named after?
Seattle: The Seahawks have made the playoffs three times in Mike Holmgren's six years, but have not won a postseason contest. In fact, Seattle hasn't won a postseason game in 21 years. This drought may have been funny for a while, but now is simply wearying for Blue Men Group faithful. And though 2004 was a playoff season for Seattle, the team was a modest 1-3 against clubs that finished with a winning record, and that lone "W" is deceptive -- it came against Atlanta in the regular-season finale, and the Falcons, having already locked up their best seeding, rested their starters.
The Seahawks enter 2005 with pretty much the same squad as 2004, which means if they want to advance, they need to drop fewer passes and take fewer Sundays off. Last year in the weeks following Thanksgiving, when the pressure was on and Seattle was in a tight playoff race, the Blue Men Group lost to the Jets by 23 points and to the Bills by 29 -- the Buffalo loss coming in front of Seattle's home crowd at the very handsome Quest Field. Now, Buffalo and Jersey/B are AFC East teams, and last season, the AFC East had the league's strongest set of defenses. Which, in turn, points to Seattle's twin problems. First, its own defense is bottom quartile statistically. Second, its offense looked good statistically -- but only by running up yards against the weak defenses of the NFC West. In 2004, Seattle posted only two victories over teams that finished in the top 10 for defense. When the Seahawks met a power defense club, they tended to wilt. If they want to advance, they need to carry the fight to the top defensive teams.
Accounting note: Clare Farnsworth of the Seattle Post Intelligencer reported that as an incentive to get players to show for offseason workouts, the Seahawks offered a free camcorder to any squad member who compiled a perfect attendance record. Four gentlemen qualified. Presumably this means the Blue Men Group must deduct four times $699.95 from their 2005 salary cap -- though if the players send the mail-in rebates, perhaps Seattle gets four times $50 added back to its cap.
Tampa: How many starters are still around from a team that won the Super Bowl a mere two-and-a-half years ago? Compare the current Bucs depth chart to the depth chart from that game; a mere six starters remain, and the Super Bowl win was just two-and-a-half years ago. Ye gods. This means it is pointless to think of City of Tampa as a team struggling to recover its Super Bowl touch. The Tampa team that won the Super Bowl no longer exists, except on highlight reels. This year's Bucs are a new bunch of gents, and they have a lot more commonality with the Bucs unit that has gone 12-20 since winning the Super Bowl than they do with the vanished champions from just two-and-a-half years ago.
The best that can be said for the current, non-Super Bowl-esque Bucs is that many of their 2004 losses were close games, with three contests decided by a field goal. Tampa field-goal kicking was poor in 2004, to which Jon "Once I Was A Teenaged Coach" Gruden has attributed some of his team's weak finish. The Bucs' two kickers combined to hit only 15 of 24 attempts, or 62 percent; had they hit the league average for 2004, Tampa would have garnered four more field goals. Think that doesn't sound like much? It's hard to score in the NFL -- field goals matter. Just ask the New England Patriots, where the spectacular Adam Vinatieri hit 31 of his 33 attempts. New England became the Super Bowl champion in part because it scored the most field goals last season. Field goals are not wimpy plays, they are crucial to football success.
Washington: The Redskins' third-place finish on defense last season was, for the tastefully named Gregg Williams, one of the top coaching feats of 2004 -- considering Washington's awful offense meant the defense was on the field a lot, and star linebacker LaVar Arrington was injured most of the year. Many have suggested the defensive performance sans Arrington shows this gentleman is overrated. But the tastefully named Williams has a history of getting peak defensive output from little-known players, so working without Arrington was just par for the course. This offseason, Washington lost defensive stars Fred Smoot and Antonio Pierce. Don't be surprised if Williams plugs in a couple who-dats and his unit continues to play well.
Defense is the only good news for this cartographically challenged franchise, which calls itself the "Washington" Redskins, though the team practices in Virginia and performs in Maryland. Offensive performance declined from 23rd during Steve Spurrier's final year to a not-funny 30th last season. The team's offseason was about the fifth consecutive offseason of disarray. In the two winters since Joe Gibbs returned, draft choices and big bonuses have been expended mostly on skinny glory boys -- quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, cornerbacks -- leaving question marks in the trenches. During the 2004 offseason, in the euphoria over Gibbs' homecoming, the Redskins signed free agents to contracts with a combined paper value of $302 million, about four times that year's cap, while also trading 2005 draft picks for lesser choices in 2004. 'Skins officials declared the contracts had been artfully worded to avoid a cap crash. But yours truly warned, "As early as next winter, Gibbs may find his roster top heavy in cap terms, and already 2005 draft picks have been expended."
So what happened "next winter" -- that is, this offseason? The Redskins hit a sal-cap wall. Smoot had to be let go because there was no cap room to re-sign him, forcing Washington to expend the ninth overall choice in this year's draft on a replacement corner. Pierce, one of the league's best defenders in 2004, had to be let go because there was no cap room to re-sign him. To top things off, the 'Skins again borrowed against the future, trading away their No. 1 choice in 2006. Between dead weight on the salary cap and the mortgaging of next year's picks, the future better be now for Washington, as the winter of 2006 may see a wholesale cap-caused roster purge, plus no top draft pick to replenish the ranks.
This leads to the coaching quandary Gibbs faces. The Redskins' core problem is inept quarterbacking. Last season, neither Patrick Ramsey nor Mark Brunell threw accurately and neither ever asserted command of the offense. There's a case for Gibbs handing the job to rookie quarterback Jason Campbell, acquired in the trade that mortgaged the future picks. Letting Campbell have his learning year as the starter might prepare him to be a top quarterback in subsequent seasons, though all but assuring no playoffs this year. Gibbs' complication: If a cap crash is coming in the winter of 2006, this may be his last chance for several years to field a winning team. So should he start erratic veterans at quarterback, or hand the ball to Campbell?
Draft note: Washington has become a bottomless pit for high-draft choice wide receivers. In 1992, the 'Skins used the fourth overall selection on receiver Desmond Howard; in 1995 they used the fourth overall selection on receiver Michael Westbrook; in 2001 they used the 15th overall selection on receiver Rod Gardner. All were huge disappointments. You have to go back a quarter century, to Art Monk in 1980, for a high-drafted Washington receiver who played well.
Reader Animadversion
After calling the second Browns the Cleveland Browns (Release 2.0) and then the Cleveland Browns (Release 2.1), last week yours truly said I would call them the Cleveland Browns (Beta Version) owing to the total overhaul in the works. Many software-adept readers, including Aaron Kroll of Chicago, pointed out that the correct techno-designation for the test version of the third iteration of a program would be 3.0b, the b standing for beta. So that's what the team will be this season -- the Cleveland Browns (3.0b). Steven Matuszek of Baltimore further pointed out that if the Browns were a software product, and assuming Ohio is a signatory to the Uniform Computer Information Transactions Act, Browns management could disclaim all liability arising from use of the product, and any merchantability for a specific purpose -- such as winning football games. Meanwhile, Greg Roemelt of Arlington Heights, Ill., pointed out that by using the convention of the Madden NFL video games, I could call the team the Cleveland Browns 2006.
Carson Ghrigsby of Memphis, Tenn., a Raiders fan, was distressed that my AFC Preview declared Oakland "could be the worst team in the league." But then, "after remembering the TMQ guarantee, the burden was lifted from my shoulders," Ghrigsby wrote. This column's motto is: All Predictions Wrong or Your Money Back.
Tuesday Morning Quarterback erred by saying Baltimore is the only NFL team with a marching band. Many, many readers, including Ben Domenech of Alexandria, Va., pointed out that the Redskins also field a marching band. And many readers pointed out that the Redskins' marching band high-steps to a fare-thee-well.
Last week, I expressed amazement that the news that Ben Roethlisberger engages in the idiotic practice of riding a motorcycle without a helmet did not cause the Pennsylvania state legislature immediately to enact a helmet law. Dave Spiese of Telford, Pa., was among many to point out that Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell is a fanatic Eagles fan, attends all Philadelphia home games and even hosts an Eagles pregame show. "Surely Rendell would veto any helmet legislation crafted to improve Pittsburgh's chances," Spiese supposed. Bob Whalen of Philadelphia noted that Lynn Swann may run against Rendell in the next gubernatorial election. If Swann wins, Whalen supposed, he might back a law mandating motorcycle helmets for Steelers while forbidding them for Eagles.
Bruce Ford of Riverside, Calif., pointed out that one of TMQ's favorite players for 2004, Ernest Wilford of Jacksonville, appeared on the NFL Network training camp show, and was seen driving his car to the players' lot. His car is a 2000 Toyota Camry. "As a social liberal/fiscal conservative, I applaud Mr. Wilford's restraint," Ford declared. Forget the Hummers and Ferraris, young athletes -- buy Camrys and bank those bonuses.
Jeff Emhuff of Columbus, Ohio, noted that when the Bengals host the Browns on Dec. 11, Cincinnati will wear its Halloween costume uniform of orange jerseys with black pants. If the Browns sport their orange pants that day, the stadium crowd may require those eye shields people wear around warp engines in sci-fi.