Arena Football League Playoffs Are Down To The Final Four

Posted: Friday, June 2, 2006 12:00 AM
The Arena Football League season has come down four teams, three games and one championship. There are several familiar faces among the four remaining teams. The San Jose Sabercats have won a pair of AFL championships in the past few years. After handling Arizona this past weekend, San Jose will make its sixth conference championship game appearance in the last seven years.

San Jose is not alone in terms of its recent history of success. The Orlando Predators have been arguably the single most successful franchise in AFL history, with a long string of consecutive playoff appearances. Orlando lost to Georgia in the conference championship game last year. This will be the Predators' fourth conference championship game in the last five years.

Chicago, too, has a strong recent history of playoff success. The Rush made the conference championship weekend a season ago, but came up short in overtime at eventual champ Colorado. The Rush will be playing in its third consecutive conference championship game and fourth in the last five years.

So, among the four remaining teams, only one team doesn't have a strong track record of recent success during playoff times - the Dallas Desperados. And Dallas just might be the single most dangerous team of the bunch, the prohibitive favorite to win Arena Bowl XX in Las Vegas on June 11. Now, let's take a closer look at the individual game matchups for the coming weekend.

San Jose Sabercats v. Chicago Rush
San Jose rookie wide receiver/linebacker Ben Nelson was a Division II All American in college at St. Cloud State, and he made a modest splash in NFL Europe after graduation. But his inaugural Arena season has been a real eye opener for scouts and fans alike, as Nelson's stellar play helped him capture the Rookie of the Year award. Nelson's postseason debut was even better than anything he accomplished during the first 16 games. He set San Jose playoff records with 12 receptions, 202 yards and six touchdowns last week. Sabercats quarterback Mark Grieb is no stranger to individual awards or postseason success either. The 2003 Sabercats team that Grieb led to a championship was recently named the best AFL team of all time.

San Jose's defense continues to play much better than its season-long numbers would indicate. The Sabercats won seven straight down the stretch in good part due to defensive stops. San Jose averaged five stops per game during that winning streak, and got five defensive stops in its victory against Arizona this past weekend. With eight straight victories, the Sabercats have the longest current winning streak in the league, as well as home-field advantage this weekend thanks to Colorado's loss to Chicago.

I'll be the first to admit that I wrote off Chicago for dead following a three-game road trip in April that saw the Rush lose by 28 at Orlando, by one (in overtime) at Philadelphia and by 19 at Arizona. Chicago was sitting at 4-8 for the season, going nowhere fast. But the Rush came on very strong down the stretch, with blowout victories against Utah and Grand Rapids during the last two weeks of the season to clinch its playoff spot.

Chicago has certainly proven its mental toughness and road acumen here in the playoffs, winning at Nashville in the first round, then knocking off the defending champs at the Pepsi Center in Colorado last Sunday. The Rush defense forced four turnovers, two of them returned for touchdowns. Meanwhile, the combination of quarterback Matt D'Orazio and receiver Bobby Sippio have produced great dividends for the Rush offensively, leading the team to an average of 68 points per game in its last four contests.

Chicago beat San Jose 54-48 in overtime when the two teams met up in the Windy City back in February. San Jose beat Chicago in the 2004 semifinals 49-35 to advance to Arena Bowl XVIII.

Dallas Desperados v. Orlando Predators
The Desperados became only the second team in Arena Football history to win 13 regular-season games. This is a league where parity really means something, and it's extraordinarily difficult to win on a weekly basis and avoid the dreaded trio of pitfalls for any football team: poor execution, turnovers and lack of intensity. Dallas certainly didn't exhibit any rust following its first bye week of the season, dominating Georgia from start to finish in a 62-27 victory last Saturday.

No, Dallas isn't one of the AFL's glamour franchises, nor do the Desperadoes have anywhere near the recent history of postseason success as their three remaining competitors for the Arena Bowl XX title. But this team has been downright dominant for months now. Quarterback Clint Dolezel set an Arena League-record with 105 touchdown passes during the regular season, finding Terrill Shaw in the end zone 39 times and Dialleo Burks 31 times. This is a potent and diverse offense that poured in 58 points per game this season.

But Dallas isn't just about offensive potency - the Desperados have the No. 1 defense of any team in the playoffs, holding foes to 44 points per game for the season. After yet another blowout last week, the Desperados have won eight of their last 11 games by 17 points or more. Loyal fans will remember the regular season meeting between these two teams, a rare national TV game on NBC. Dolezel matched his own AFL record with eleven touchdown passes in a single game, as the Desperados scored a season-high in an 87-62 victory at the Jungle in Orlando.

Don't expect the Predators to go quietly here. Head coach Jay Gruden is a proven playoff winner, while the Orlando defense has been playing at a completely different level than the rest of the league since that midseason loss to Dallas. Since that defeat, the Predators have held seven of their nine opponents to 42 points or less, winning and covering the spread in each of those seven ballgames. Orlando's defense was positively dominant in its 31-27 victory against Philadelphia this past weekend. While we can't expect Orlando to outscore Dallas in a shootout - I don't think anyone can outscore Dallas in a shootout - the Predators defensive acumen gives them a fighting chance in a lower scoring ballgame. This is one contest where side and total are surely related.