You can add personnel debates to this but this is more from a stat pov.

We have 22 points from 10 games. Last year we had 20 at this stage - we're 2 better off.

In terms of equivalent fixtures - (compare Birmingham at home this year to Middlesbrough at home last year) we had 18 points from the same fixtures last year. So we're 4 points better off in terms of that.

Last year at this stage we had conceded 10 goals - it's 13 this time round.

We scored 22 goals by the 10 game mark last year - it's 32 this time round.

November and December however were the points last year where we really lost the plot - we'd actually lost the same number of games at this point last year as this year. 3 November losses and the string of Xmas draws fucked us over.

To win the league last year, United won 28 games. The previous year 27, the year before that 28 again. Logic would dictate that for us to be in with a shout we need a similar haul - ie winning at least 25. You can probably shave a couple off with the capabilities of the mid-table teams to nick results and the fact that everyone bar Shitty have lost at least 2.

We've got 7 wins so far with 28 games left. We probably need to win 17/18 of those to give ourselves a chance. And not lose too many either, obviously

The rate at which we're scoring and blowing most teams away atm, would you rule us out?

I reckon we're in with a shout, but it's still more likely to be Chelsea or United, tbh.

Good post. I don't want to look too far ahead. We're playing well and winning games so I would't rule us out but obviously we're not favourites.

I reckon we'll finish 2nd to Chelsea.

I haven't changed my opinion from the last time we did this pre-season, we're going to be challenging for it, wth us as one of the forerunners imo.

I agree completely that we're going to blow lower teams away, I think we're mostly going to drop points to the big guys with maybe a few mid-table teams taking some off us.

wouldn't rule us out but in certain areas I think chelski and utd have better squad depth and therefore can cope with the full season better than we can.

we should be a lot closer than last year as things stand and with nasri, rosicky, vela, denilson and others to return.

We probably will, tbh.

All depends on that ridiculous tough ACoN period but I think we'll carry on winning the home bankers and the matches we're 'supposed' to win. Not sure we'll be able to raise our performances against the top teams but, at home, I fancy our chances of beating anyone.

That's interesting. I'm surprised it's not more, last season we seemed awful.
I think in general we're looking a lot better this season and yes, I think we're in with a shout.

I'd make us 3rd favourites between ManYoo and Chelsea though and personally I think they're far more likely to win it than us.

first 10 or 11 matches mean fuck all..if we are still there in mid february we are in with a shout

however, I feel Chelsea look too good this season

10 years ago we would be almost certainties to win the league at this stage. But nowadays competition is fierce with teams like Man Utd and Chelsea winning the majority of the games slip up's are costly.

Talent wise we're as good as Chelsea and Man United, our squads are equal and for a change I would say our squad depth is as good if not better. However the West Ham match showed the weak mentality and fight we have which has often cost us in the past. This is very worrying and will undoubtedly show up again at other points during the season.

In answer, yes we can but Chelsea and Man Utd are still favourites as they arn't as weak mentally as us.

As far as Chelsea are concerned, they have an old squad which will get tired fairly easily towards the end of the season and with no way to re-inforce in January I think they're going to fade, if they manage to cope with losing Drogba/Essien for ACON that is.

Wenger should tell them to do what they did last year around this time.

We started off on a 20 odd game unbeaten run which got us 4th place after a terrible start but too late to challenge for the title.

Do similar this season and we'll walk the league

Keep picking up wins the way we are and we'll be in with a shout. I think the ability is there, we just have to see how we react when the injuries mount up and the big fixtures come thick and fast.

Chelsea are looking very consistent right now but when January comes and they lose 3 key players in Mikel, Essien and especially Drogba that could be the time to overhaul them.

I fancy us to finish top 3 by default looking at Liverpool's plight, I don't think the smart money is on us to win it but I think we can keep on the tails of the top 2 and who knows with a bit of luck we might be able to crack into it.

This year, the chavs are the team to beat. We can do it looking at current form. Consistency will be the issue.

Which will be determined by complacency and concentration.




We're screwed...:(

The Chelsea game at the end of this month will tell us if we are genuine challengers or just the best of the rest

See where you are coming from, but I don't think it is as simple as that. We have had a good record in recent seasons against the title contenders, but have failed to be as effective as we ought to be against the rest.

And in 07/08 we only won one top 4 game but mounted an ok challenge.

3 points against Hull is the same as 3 points against Chelsea, consistency is what's required.

:goodpost:

Well thought out post however I will not star believing untill after Christmas as long as we dont screw up in November and December like last year I see no reason why this wont need changing :title:

:scarf:

this is what I think, basically to a tee -- we've got equal or better quality and depth as compared to our rivals. But we don't have the right culture/mentality, and that will cost us.

So that's our weakness. The question is, how will it balance out against our rivals' weaknesses?

Chavs:

This could be really significant.

Mancs: Their weakness is that they actually have a kind of weak team, when you think about it, especially in midfield. Can an excellent defense (does that require a fit Rio?) and two excellent strikers, along with a great winning mentality, compensate for a mediocre midfield?

tbh, most likely in my mind is chavs 1st, us 2nd, mancs 3rd, and anyone's guess for 4th but maybe Citeh. But we could do it, you never know.

We must also ensure that no further NY-GW meetups take place at Nevada Smith's...

goes without saying.

I'm not watching another match in a public place for the rest of the season

This is one thing I'm always in agreement with AW on- we have players who can and have always been capable of winning the league- although this year is probably our best year of squad depth in a very long time (especially when compared with the other contenders as only Chelsea seem to be on our level atm).

Will we win it? Honestly thats another question, but what I'll say is factors beyond our control seem to be favorable to our side e.g

1. The weak squad depth of Liverpool and surprisinlgy Man U
2. ACON should affect Chelsea adversely, especially if that transfer ban holds
3. The emergence of Man City, the belief in Villa and Totenham that they should be in the top 4- which means our little clique should drop more points.

I defnitely think this has been our best chance in ages to win the league, but obviosuly still question AWs abilty to do so with this mentally weak but talented bunch he's assembled

Sopcast live stream FTW :good:

i think this is overanalysng. all that has happened is that liverpool and arsenal have swapped places,but the two most likely contenders remain chelsea and manyoo.

i think this is underanalysng :good:

:haha: Ok Jens', what are you drinking?

One things for sure, it aint bourbon.

touche.

but what I mean is that 'x points from the same fixture last year, and lets replace boro with burnley or whoever' isnt worth so much. Teams change from season to season. Many newly promoted teams have second season-itis and so on.

its still manyoo and chelsea, especially if manyoo spend anywhere near what they are supposed to be throwing at the problem in january.
Otherwise last year liverpool had a shot, and this season its us. Before liverpool we were good value for 3/4 of a season.

Just as there is still a gap between us and suprs, theres still a gap between us and the top.

We have an outside chance but I cant see anything that makes me think its more than that right now

3rd behind the chavs an dthe non-mancs

moonshine?

Song conceding too many Yellows to have a chance of the Fair Play League this season <_<

Nah Liverpool for the quadruple™ triple :trophy:

Take it 1 game at a time.

Feel we are just 2 players away from all out world domintation !!

Too early to tell IMO, the winter months are notoriously tough for us so we'll have to see how we do in that period, we'll have a better idea come mid January.

bang goes our last hope of sneaking into the uefa cup then. what will we do?

:)

The teams above you are the teams to beat, so dont rule us out yet.

But yes, as i was saying a gabillion years ago, you'll finish in the top two, minimum.

Too close to call.

Consistancy is the big word. But more than ever, picking up points against our rivals is key.

One or two bad results and we're miles away again. Can't see Utd or Chelsea slipping up as much as us, so maybe it's a bit too far away....

As always, it's easier to get a perspective around Christmas, and then stay within 5 points come February. Then it's on.

I reckon so. This weekend will be a pretty big one for all of the three that most expect will be fighting for the title. Us because we have to play against a recently promoted team; Chelsea v Man Utd is fairly self-explanatory.

Not quite, because 3 points against Chelsea would mean Chelsea lose 3, and theyre our rivals.

I believe its called a 6 pointer.

Anyway, i think we can win it no doubt. I think alot on here think the same but after previous years, its best to excersie some restraint in hoping about the title.

We can win the league, but we won't. What I mean here is we most definitely have the talent, but I'm not sure we have the mentality or application to see the season through and finish as champions.

In some ways we've been the most impressive side in PL so far, the United result was just plain unlucky and for long periods we were worth a point at the least against City until the collapse.

This unfortunately is where I think we'll fall down...we'll somewhere mess it up, we always do. :(

I really don't want to say this but.......

:goodpost: Not because I like to hear it but because it think its true.