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Tristateweather > General Weather Discussion > Preliminary Winter Forecast For Winter 2012-2013


Title: Preliminary Winter Forecast For Winter 2012-2013


snow - February 27, 2012 04:42 AM (GMT)
I'm telling you folks I'm in shock that someone would put out a winter forecast 10 months in advance....But here it is... :rolleyes:

Brief Look into Winter 2012-2013
By Andrew at 6:06 PM

This is a VERY PRELIMINARY forecast for the 2012-2013 Winter, as some are saying it could be one for the ages. Here are the factors. Bear in mind that this preliminary forecast will NOT contain our forecast as it is very far out.

EL NINO, LA NINA, OR NEUTRAL?

user posted image

Above is the forecast for the main ENSO region. Areas below the 0.5 line are classified as a La Nina, which we are currently in according to the graph at the very beginning. As we progress through the year of 2012, it looks like this Nina will fade out into neutral territory, which is neither an El Nino or La Nina, but rather a weak combination of both. This neutral territory is between +0.5 and -0.5 on the graph above. These forecasts indicate that a neutral winter is possible for the winter of 2012-2013. We are not going to go in-depth right now because this will change, but a neutral winter appears possible.

SOLAR ACTIVITY

Solar activity is currently forecasted to drop down to very low levels over the next several years as the sun enters a 'hibernation' of sorts. There will be an unusually low number of sunspots, leading to slightly lower worldwide temperatures. This cycle, called Cycle 24, will slightly increase in the summer of 2012 before drastically bombing out in 2013. That said, 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters may be very cold, colder than average.

VOLCANIC ACTIVITY

Some volcanoes have been erupting in 2011, and one we are closely watching has the potential to produce drastically colder temperatures for the world as well...if it erupts. If it does, the winter of 2012-2013 will very likely be colder than average for many areas around the world. There are many other factors involved, but this volcanic activity could be one of the bigger factors.

user posted image

user posted image

Here are forecasted precipitation and temperature anomalies (respectfully) for DJF (December, January, February). These forecasts are from the Ensemble Canonical Correlation Analysis (ECCA) forecast system at the Climate Prediction Center.

For precipitation, the ECCA is projecting above normal precipitation across the northern US, but also majorly in the West US, where a 40% chance is present. For the North US, it looks like widespread areas of up to 10% are present. The same is present in the Northeast.

As for temperatures, it appears a major area of below normal temperatures are forecasted in the Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, South Plains, Southeast, Northwest, Southwest. The High Plains and Northeast are slightly above normal, though.

This is simply a look into next winter and not a forecast.

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/201...r-forecast.html

snow - February 27, 2012 04:49 AM (GMT)
I have no idea who this guy is but its safe to assume he's another frustrated snow lover looking forward to next winter.... :)

Ed Kollin - February 27, 2012 04:32 PM (GMT)
Why does it matter when according to the pseudo-Mayan model the world is ending anyway?




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